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Bitcoin Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

Bitcoin Dominance Hits 3-Month High as Crypto Market Limps into 2019



bitcoin strong

Bitcoin’s share of total cryptocurrency market capitalisation is at its highest point in three months, currently standing at about 55.14 percent according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Bitcoin Dominance Surges amid Crypto Price Panic

The next four high volume cryptocurrencies in order of market volume are XRP with 11.14 percent, ethereum with 8.55 percent, bitcoin cash with 1.65 percent, and litecoin with 1.33 percent. The data confirms a frequently-observed pattern where crypto investors whose holdings are taking a beating choose to dump their altcoin holdings and retreat into the relative safety of bitcoin.

bitcoin dominance cryptocurrency market cap
Source: CoinMarketCap

The total crypto market cap continues to hover around $110 billion, a figure that represents a more than 86 percent drop from the all-time high of $825 billion in January. A few days ago, CCN reported that the bitcoin price hit a new yearly low near $3,200, and the market rout continues to show no sign of abating.

As the end of the year approaches and a number of optimistic predictions about a crypto market rebound look increasingly wide of the mark, a good number of investors may likely have decided to prepare for the so-called “crypto winter” by converting their holdings to bitcoin — either to hold or in preparation for cashing out into fiat.

Investors Remain Confident

Amidst miserable market conditions, a few notable crypto investors and analysts continue to stress that even though the market is taking some pain at the moment, this does not mean that cryptocurrencies are undergoing a fundamental unraveling as an asset class just yet.

Responding to recent fears about a bitcoin “death spiral” whereby miners effectively jeopardise the running of the blockchain by leaving quicker than the network can adjust its hashing difficulty, Andreas Antonopoulos said:

“Miners have a much more long-term perspective, meaning that they have existing investments in equipment and they usually purchase electricity on long-term plans, they don’t pay it by the week. And therefore, if they have to wait to become profitable another three months and they have the equipment in place, they’re not turning it off.”

Billionaire venture capitalist Jim Breyer also recently added his voice to the conversation, stating that regardless of the market woes cryptocurrencies are facing, the present and potential utility offered by blockchain technology makes it unthinkable that this will turn out to be the “end” of crypto. Rather, he said, this is merely a cyclical market movement that does not change the basic fact that some of the world’s most intelligent people are currently building solutions within the blockchain space.

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Bitcoin Analysis

Why Billionaire Investors Remain Positive on Long-Term Trend of Crypto



jim breyer bitcoin crypto blockchain

Mike Novogratz, Jim Breyer, and Tim Draper are some of many billionaire investors in the traditional financial market who remain optimistic towards the long-term trend of crypto.

How are these investors able to maintain their positive stance in regards to the growth of the cryptocurrency sector following an 85 percent decline in valuation across the board?

It’s About Cycles

For the most part, high profile individual investors are able to handle severe losses in emerging asset classes and high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) because they account for a small part of their wealth and portfolios.

As is the same in real estate and other traditional markets, wealthy investors have the ability to hold onto assets and properties even during the event of an unexpected market crash or the occurrence of a bear market.

But, normal retail investors and individual traders who need quick cash to cover day-to-day operations and expenses have no other option but to sell most of the high-risk assets they hold in their portfolios.

bitcoin price
Source:  TradingView

In bear markets, retail traders often suffer a significant loss because they are unable to handle an 80 to 90 percent drop in value and are forced into a position to liquidate their holdings. Billionaire investors and large-scale institutions, in contrast, have the luxury to hold and sustain their portfolios.

Perhaps a bigger factor that has high net worth individuals remaining relatively positive on the long-term growth of the cryptocurrency market is the historical performance of Bitcoin.

Throughout the past nine years, Bitcoin has suffered five bubble-crash-build-rally cycles wherein the dominant cryptocurrency dropped by about 85 percent on average and recovered to a new all-time high.

From $19,500, Bitcoin has dropped about 82 percent in value and the 85 percent point would be at around $2,950.

On Wall Street, most of the high profile investors that are currently involved in the cryptocurrency market have gone through many cycles like the bubble-crash-build-rally pattern of cryptocurrencies, and for a big portion of those investors, such cycles do not come across as untypical.

This year has also demonstrated to investors that cryptocurrencies as an asset class is not a fad because both cryptocurrency-related businesses and major financial institutions continue to build and strengthen the infrastructure surrounding the asset class, as seen in the efforts of NYSE, Nasdaq, and ICE.

Jim Breyer, a billionaire venture capitalist, added that the world’s best computer scientists are flocking to the blockchain space and it would not be a smart move to bet against the industry:

“So many of the very best computer scientists and deep learning Ph.D. students and postdocs are working on blockchain because they have so much fundamental interest in what blockchain can mean. You don’t want to bet against the best and brightest in the world.”

Question is, When Will it Recover?

On average, it has taken 67 weeks for Bitcoin to recover in its past five major corrections and achieve a new all-time high. 67 weeks from the point in which Bitcoin achieved $19,500 would be the 2nd quarter of 2018.

The past is not a guarantee of the future performance of the cryptocurrency space, but it provides a hint on how the market normally performs and survives through intense sell-offs.

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Bitcoin Analysis

Bitcoin Avoids Large Drop Below $3k With 7% Recovery, Trend Reversal?



Bitcoin price

Over the last 24 hours, the Bitcoin price has experienced a seven percent recovery from $3,210 to $3,433, avoiding a further drop below the $3,000 support level.

Many traders expected Bitcoin (BTC) to rebound from the $3,000 to $3,300 range because the $3,000 support level has shown strength throughout the past two weeks.

Ethereum (ETH) recorded a 15 percent increase from its daily low and ERC20 tokens such as Quarkchain, OmiseGo, and 0x demonstrated gains in the range of 5 to 15 percent, due to the integration of tokens by Coinbase.

The Coinbase team said on December 7:

“We are exploring the addition of many new assets beyond ERC20 tokens on a jurisdiction-by-jurisdiction basis.”

Where is Bitcoin Heading

According to Collin Crypto, a Bitcoin trader and a venture capital investor in the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin shorts achieved an all-time high on Bitfinex, one of the largest digital asset trading platforms in the world that allow margin trading.

It is possible, given the aggressive short contracts filed on major exchanges, that shorts were squeezed out and intensified the corrective rally of the dominant cryptocurrency.

As such, it is too early to confirm a trend reversal, especially since the asset has not been able to test important resistance levels in the high $3,000 region. If the volume of the asset fails to hold up, another large correction in a low price range could materialize.

One analyst said:

“Something to keep an eye out for before you start popping bottles. The previous two times we have seen a strong green candle, it goes something like this. Pump directly into resistance. A 2nd weaker volume retest. Slow bleed into an accelerated dump.”

David Puell, a Bitcoin and market analyst, said that a short-term bottom and trend reversal could be achieved in the upcoming days if the asset begins to show some stability.

“Picking up signs of accumulation: the effort not matching results is a sign of local reversal,” Puell said.

However, until the Bitcoin price surpasses major resistance levels above the $3,700 mark, it’s not possible to conclusively state that a proper bottom is established to initiate a mid-term rally.

Will Tokens Recover?

Although the price trend of ERC20 tokens hugely depends on the short-term price movement of Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum, Coinbase has started to aggressively integrate new assets into its platform.

After adding Decentraland, Loom, Civic, and District0x, the company said that it intends to add even more assets in the months to come.

One of the main reasons behind the significantly large price decline of ERC20 tokens has been their low liquidity and daily volume. Most tokens are currently being traded with less than $10 million in daily volume.

Increasing liquidity and proper infrastructure provided by Coinbase and potentially more strictly regulated cryptocurrency exchanges in the U.S. market could allow many tokens to recover in value throughout the months to come.

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Bitcoin Analysis

Bitcoin is 43% More Profitable Than Craig Wright’s ‘Miner-Friendly’ BSV



craig wright nchain bitcoin cash

When Craig Wright formed an alliance with CoinGeek founder Calvin Ayre to launch a hostile takeover of the Bitcoin Cash (BCH) network, the two men predicted that their BCH implementation — Bitcoin SV (BSV) — would quickly accrue near universal support among miners due to its allegedly miner-friendly protocol specifications. This support would be so comprehensive, they boasted, that the other BCH would quickly cease to exist. Actual events, of course, took a very different turn, and before long, BSV’s backers had resigned themselves to pursuing “Satoshi’s original ‘original vision’” on yet another independent blockchain.

Now that the dust has settled, Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin SV have similar hash rates, though BCH has accumulated 28.9 percent more proof of work since the fork. Notably, though, there is a stark contrast in the economics of mining these two networks, both of which continue to utilize the SHA-256 hashing algorithm.

Taking coin price, network difficulty, and block rewards into account and using Bitcoin (BTC) as a baseline, Coin Dance estimates that BTC is a full 43 percent more profitable to mine than BSV, meaning that BSV miners are throwing away significant revenue by continuing to mine this blockchain — much as they mined at a loss in the aftermath of the fork.

bitcoin mining bitcoin cash bitcoin sv
Source: Coin Dance

That’s more than a bit ironic, considering that BSV was supposed to be the miner-friendly implementation of BCH, which itself positioned itself as the miner-friendly alternative to BTC.

Speaking of Bitcoin Cash, despite its post-fork price collapse, BCH is currently the most profitable of the three major Bitcoin iterations, at least for miners. At present, BCH is 9.2 percent more profitable than BTC — even after its recent difficulty reduction — making it around 47 percent more lucrative for miners than BSV.

Of the three networks, Bitcoin’s is not only the most secure but also features the most decentralized hash rate. BTC’s largest mining pool, BTC.com, accounts for 16.5 percent of the blocks mined over the past week (BTC.com is owned by Bitmain, which also owns AntPool. Together, these pools possess 30 percent of the hash rate). Bitcoin Cash, in contrast, features two Bitmain-linked mining pools — ViaBTC and BTC.com — that collectively manage around 56 percent of the BCH hashrate. BSV is also quite centralized, with CoinGeek’s mining pool accounting for 36.1 percent of the hash rate and SVPool — which is operated by Craig Wright’s firm, nChain — possessing another 20.8 percent.

For all their talk of on-chain scaling, BCH and BSV continue to process much smaller blocks than BTC. As of the time of writing, most BTC blocks were approaching the maximum block weight of 4 MB. BCH, with its 32 MB block size limit, was averaging blocks around 50 KB, while BSV — which Craig Wright claims will process blocks up to 1 TB within two years — was averaging less than 13 KB per block.

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Bitcoin Analysis

Bitcoin Price Will Likely Fall to $1,500: Bloomberg Analyst



bitcoin price fall off cliff

On the back of a grueling quarter, the bitcoin price could still see tougher times ahead. One analyst over at Bloomberg sees the flagship cryptocurrency possibly heading toward $1,500.

Indeed, bitcoin had a dismal November, as part of a difficult year overall for the crypto market, though the past few days have seen slightly more stability from crypto’s largest asset. However, today it seems that the selling has resumed. Bitcoin has dropped nearly $200 already today, from just over $3,900 down to $3,739 as of the time of writing.

bitcoin price chart
BTC/USD | Bitstamp

In a report released today, Bloomberg technical analyst Mike McGlone explained that bitcoin is currently stuck in stiff downward momentum.

According to a chart indicator called the Average Directional Index (ADI for short), BTC is at a peak not seen since July. If the indicator is high, it shows high levels of downward trend vigor. McGlone said that he sees a possible price target of $1,500 for bitcoin. Hitting that price would mean another 60 percent fall from its current rate, which is already down 81 percent from last year’s all-time high.

“There’s little to prevent fading bitcoin prices from reaching the continuous mean of $1,500 […] A rush to the exits among investors seems to be in place,” said McGlone, who fingered the Bitcoin Cash hard fork and tax-based selling as catalysts for the downward momentum.

“The hard fork was a key trigger that signaled the technology is way too nascent. You had these dicey characters threatening to destroy each other and institutions said ‘It might be best if we stay away from this for a while.’”

The Bloomberg report also mentions the recent SEC crackdown on ICOs and the commission’s hesitancy to approve a bitcoin ETF.

November, as CCN reported, saw bitcoin dive over 40 percent, racking up the largest monthly price drop for the asset in the past seven years.

“The trend is lower prices, lower volatility, reduced speculation, and the preponderance of stable coins,” said McGlone. He indicates the need for crypto assets to set a firm price base. Unfortunately, “we’re not near that base yet,” he said.

Other crypto experts see bitcoin dropping further as well, but some see a bottom possibly higher than $1,500. Last month CCN reported on Anthony Pompliano’s thoughts on a bottom for bitcoin.

“85 percent from the all-time high is about where we’ll end up. Puts it around $3,000. Came close over the weekend but probably a little bit more to fall,” Pomliano stated.

On the flip side, there is still the $15,000 end of year forecast from Tom Lee, though that target appears less likely by the day.

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Bitcoin Analysis

Breakout Inbound? Bitcoin Price Sets $4,000 as Upside Target



bitcoin price target

The bitcoin price on Tuesday jumped as high as 6.1 percent against the US Dollar but failed to sustain a bullish momentum.

The BTC/USD index is trading at 3910-fiat at press time, up 4.5 percent from the intraday low at 3741-fiat. The pair is undergoing a pullback action after failing to sustain its run above 4000-fiat. The said level still has a lot of bearish activity going around while an equally strong buying sentiment can be seen at 3741-fiat, which has reversed downside corrections twice in the past 36 hours. It puts BTC/USD in a consolidation — a sort of bias conflict awaiting a breakout action.

BTC/USD 4H CHART | SOURCE: COINBASE, TRADINGVIEW.COM

The consolidation continues inside a symmetrical triangle formation – as also discussed in our previous analysis. BTC/USD is testing 4000-fiat as its psychological resistance while also eyeing the triangle resistance (falling trend line) as a potential long target. A breakout above the said levels could confirm a bullish bias in the near-term. Its longevity will be confirmed if the pair completes an inverse head and shoulder formation by testing the neckline level at 5578-fiat.

A symmetrical triangle formation also opens similar possibilities of a breakdown action. Thus, a break below the triangle support (rising trend line) could confirm a near-term bearish bias, with an interim short target waiting at 3592-fiat.

The RSI momentum indicator is showing signs of reversals, which could push it toward the selling sentiment area. The MACD indicator is also trending inside a negative territory.

Macroeconomic Factors

Meanwhile, the fundamentals are becoming stronger for bitcoin as Nasdaq has officially confirmed that will add support for bitcoin futures next year. The world’s second largest stock exchange has partnered with VanEck to roll out the said trading market. VanEck is the same company whose bitcoin ETF is being reviewed by the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

The dollar, on the other hand, is looking weaker on Tuesday as the Fed reportedly prepares to pause its interest rate hike, leading to a slippage in the US Treasury yields. The curve inversion further prompted fears of a probable recession in the market. Such fears could allow investors to pool their money into assets like bitcoin that are away from the decisions of the government or any other financial authority.

BTC/USD Intraday Positions

BTC/USD 1H CHART | SOURCE: COINBASE, TRADINGVIEW.COM

According to our intraday analysis, the bitcoin price testing 3998-fiat as its interim resistance and 3901-fiat as interim support. An ongoing bullish price action reversal at 3901-fiat is prompting us to open a long position towards 3998. As we do, we’ll put a stop loss order just $10 below the local swing low. A break above 3998-fiat, meanwhile, would have us go long after 4095-fiat, our primary upside target while maintaining a stop loss order just $5 below the level at which we entered.

The invalidation of current bullish price action would have us wait for the bitcoin price to break below interim support. As it happens, we’ll open a short trade towards the channel support depicted in purple to the downside. A stop loss order, meanwhile, will be maintained at 3911-fiat to protect our trade from potential additional losses.

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Bitcoin Analysis

Bitcoin Price Erases Weekend Gains to Confirm Bearish Long-Term Trend



bitcoin price stability streak snapped

The bitcoin price kicked off the week on a negative note after correcting 2 percent to the downside.

The BTC/USD rate found itself unable to breach above the neckline level discussed in our previous analysis. The falling trendlines look stronger than ever in other patterns as well. The symmetrical triangle formation, for instance, on the hourly chart also presents its upper trendline as a strong resistance level to the recent bullish attempts. Bitcoin is forming lower highs and higher lows to consolidate inside the same triangle. As of now, we are testing the support area of the triangle pattern.

BTC/USD 1H CHART | SOURCE: COINBASE, TRADINGVIEW.COM

The BTC/USD rate is now bouncing back from a newfound support level at 3910-fiat and is due to retest the triangle resistance. If buyers are strong enough, they should be able to push the pair above the wall, creating a scenario of a breakout formation. In that case, the next upside target is located at 4413-fiat — still inside a fake breakout zone — which should create a decent long opportunity for bulls. At the same tip, placing a stop loss $10 below the local swing low would define the risk management strategy.

Meanwhile, as BTC/USD tests the triangle support, there is a strong likelihood of a breakdown action as well. An extended selling action brings 3650-fiat in view as the immediate downside target. Traders looking to enter short towards the said bear level should maintain a stop loss target $10 above the local swing high. It would minimize the losses if the price action reverses direction.

BTC/USD Technical Indicators

BTC/USD 1D CHART | SOURCE: COINBASE, TRADINGVIEW.COM

The BTC/USD pair is trending below its 50-period and 100-period simple moving averages. The RSI momentum indicator is consolidating inside the selling area, just above 30. Meanwhile, the Stochastic Oscillator is also on its way up, signaling a potential break towards 52 — a neutral zone.

The long-term trend, thus, is bearish. The next upside swing depends on the ability of 3442-fiat to hold the downside momentum. A full-fledged bullish bias cannot be confirmed unless the BTC/USD pair jumps above the 50-period SMA on the daily chart.

Trade safely!

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Bitcoin Analysis

Bloodbath in US Stock Market Likely, Bitcoin a Good Long-Term Bet



NYSE Satoshi Nakamoto



CCN is expanding. Are you our next full-time journalist from the West Coast USA? Send us your CV and examples here.

Student loans, credit card debt, mortgage, corporate loans, and all kinds of debt are placing huge pressure on the U.S. stock market. Over the long-term, Mark Yusko believes emerging markets and Bitcoin are viable long-term bets for investors.

On CNBC’s Fast Money, Morgan Creek Capital Management CEO and chief investment officer Mark Yusko expressed his concerns towards the “melting” stock market of the U.S. and warned the state of the market in which corporations are stacking up debt which they can no longer afford.

As various types of debt continue to spike to an all-time high, Yusko explained that the pressure on the U.S. economy will lead the credit bubble to explode, severely hurting the market.

Last week, the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association reported that the corporate debt of the U.S. reached $9 trillion, doubling the debt within two years.

Yusko said:

“I think this year, will continue to melt slowly like a melting ice cube. I think next year, with the economic slow down it gets worse, probably double digit drops and the big year is 2020, when the credit bubble starts to blow up. Every company has binged on cheap debt, they have over-levered, there’s 14% of companies of S&P can’t service their debt with the next three years of ebitda.

Is Bitcoin a Good Bet?

In the long-term, the Morgan Creek CEO asserted that Bitcoin is a good asset to have in a portfolio because as a decentralized network, the performance of the asset does not depend on broader financial markets.

Over the past eleven months, due to the unforeseen impact of the futures market on the price trend of Bitcoin amongst many other possible catalysts, the asset class has suffered an 80 percent drop from its all-time high valuation at around $800 billion.

Still, Yusko emphasized that he is a “big bull” in the long run and in the years to come, the dominant cryptocurrency will likely achieve more usage, awareness, and adoption, eventually recovering in value.

He stated:

“Bitcoin, love it long-term. I was wrong, completely wrong, on the impact of futures on the Bitcoin price. I thought, because they were cash settled, you couldn’t get rehypothecation and put artificial price pressure. I was wrong. You’re seeing rehypothecation. You see on those expiration right before the futures expire, lots of pressure on those down days. But, as we get more usage moving forward and people buy into this idea that it is a store of value, increasing use cases, we’re trading $4.5 billion worth of Bitcoin every day, versus 5 years ago, sub couple hundred million. So huge increase in usage, long-term I’m a big bull.”

Bitcoin remains down nearly 80 percent down from its all-time high at $19,500. In consideration of the magnitude of the recent sell-off, investors that enter the Bitcoin market now will probably see gains relatively quick in the foreseeable future, Yusko said.

20-Fold Returns

In the next 10 years, as was the case with the Internet sector subsequent to the dot-com bubble, Yusko added that a 10 to 20-fold return on investment is possible.

“Over a decade, I think you can make 20 times plus your money. I really do. I think it is one of those few asset classes where you have asymmetric return profile. I think over a one year period, it’s tough to tell.”

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Bitcoin Analysis

Crypto Winter Arrived, Bitcoin Not Escaping $5kFor 3 to 6 Months





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According to Vinny Lingham, the CEO of Civic, the crypto market and Bitcoin could suffer from their bearish trend for at least three to six months.

The $3,000 support level has been quite strong Lingham said and in the short-term, the $3,000 support level will likely be maintained with buy orders being set in the lower range of $3,000 to $3,500.

Lingham said:

“I think it stays in the range between $3,000 to $5,000 at least for three to six months. I don’t think we break through the support level of $3,000 just yet. I think there is a lot of buying in the short-term around that mark. If we don’t get out of the crypto bear market cycle in the next three or six months, the $3,000 level could go.”

Not Escaping Crypto Bear Market in Six Months Could Lead to Trouble

Several prominent analysts including Woobull.com founder Willy Woo have said that the bear market of the cryptocurrency market could come to an end by the second quarter of 2018, but there exists a very low probability of the downtrend being reversed in the short-term.

Following a correction in the magnitude of 80 to 90 percent, an asset normally tends to endure a long consolidation period. For a rapidly moving asset class like crypto, the consolidation period could last three to six months.

But, Lingham said that if the cryptocurrency market fails to recover in the next two quarters, the $3,000 support level could be breached and the downtrend could extend to the end of next year.

Over the past several months, in spite of the volatility in the cryptocurrency market, the industry has seen the entrance of Bakkt, ICE, Nasdaq, Fidelity, and many more financial institutions in Asia.

Today, on November 27, sources reported that Nasdaq is planning to operate a Bitcoin futures market by the first quarter of 2019.

Lingham noted that if the volatility of the cryptocurrency market continues to increase, then institutional investors could refrain from investing in the asset class even if the infrastructure strengthens and solidifies.

“[Extreme volatility] doesn’t make crypto an investment-grade asset. If you keep speaking about institutional investors coming to the table and ETF getting approved, you can’t have this sort of volatility in an asset class if you want big money to be involved,” he added.

Is Bitcoin Too Risky?

The recent crash of Bitcoin in the past two weeks by more than 35 percent has scared away retail and institutional investors, Lingham explained. Because of the downtrend, he emphasized that the asset is too risky to invest in.

“I think in the short-term, it is a market where you scare away the retail investors, you scare away the institutional money and the die hards are hodlers, and will come in whatever dry part they have left. For me, it’s a bit too risky. But obviously, it’s high-risk, high-reward, if the market does turn, this could be a great time to buy.”

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Bitcoin Analysis

Bitcoin Price Drops 7% Again as Crypto Market Struggles to Retain Momentum



bitcoin price



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Throughout the past 24 hours, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) dropped from $4,065 to $3,600, reversing a short-term corrective rally.

The dominant cryptocurrency has been on a steep downtrend for several weeks but on November 26, for a brief of time, Bitcoin seemed to be initiating a corrective rally after reaching a new yearly low at around $3,400.

Temporarily, Bitcoin spiked to $4,000, engaging in a 17 percent increase in price within a 24-hour period. However, the price of the asset began to fell back to the lower region of $3,000.

What is Bitcoin up to?

The cryptocurrency market is struggling to sustain any sort of momentum in an attempt to create a trend reversal. Sell pressure on major digital assets is increasing and buy pressure is declining, which has led both Bitcoin and Ethereum to drop by more than 40 percent in the past two weeks.

“Bitcoin failing to complete the bull flag and to hold the neckline of the IH&S. Lack of buy pressure and $3,800 range looking weak. Expecting more downside: $3,400 as first target,” cryptocurrency trader Crypto Rand said on November 26.

Since Monday, the price of BTC has moved closer to the $3,400 support level and based on the movement of BTC in the past 12 hours, it is likely that BTC will drop below the level in the days to come, especially if it fails to maintain stability above the $4,000 mark.

Ripple (XRP), EOS, Stellar (XLM) and other major cryptocurrencies are in a worse position than BTC and ETH because of their low daily volumes. Currently, the volume of ETH remains larger than that of XRP, XLM, and BCH combined.

When the price of an asset falls substantially without a huge spike in volume, it represents a free fall without much sell pressure. Which means as big sell volumes begin to the hit the market, the price of the asset could be vulnerable to additional sell-offs in the near future.

The volume of BTC is decent at $6.5 billion and the volume of ETH is also relatively high. But, the volume of other major cryptocurrencies are lower than where they were from August to November, a period in which BTC demonstrated its lowest level of volatility in recent history.

Alex Krüger, a cryptocurrency trader and economist, said:

“Before the crash BTC had been growing exponentially. Will BTC ever resume exponential growth? Maybe not. Maybe only temporarily. Many assets don’t grow exponentially. What if bitcoin has matured and starts behaving as a currency or most commodities?”

One Positive: Swiss ETP

The newly introduced crypto exchange-traded product (ETP) in Switzerland offered by Amun and the Swiss Stock Exchange, has began to appeal to a large group of traders in the region.

It has become the biggest ETP in Switzerland with the highest trading volume, portraying an immense interest from local investors towards crypto.

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Bitcoin Analysis

Bitcoin Price Will Bottom at 85% Discount to All-Time High: Morgan Creek



anthony pompliano morgan creek crypto podcast off the chain bitcoin price



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Anthony Pompliano, who works in Morgan Creek’s Digital Assets division, told CNBC’s Squawk Box on Monday that he believes the Bitcoin price is essentially going to bottom out with an 85% reduction in value from its previous all-time high. Prefacing that his forecast is based on previous experience in the crypto markets, he said:

“85% from the all-time high is about where we’ll end up. Puts it around $3,000. Came close over the weekend but probably a little bit more to fall.”

He went on to explain to the host, who spoke of lost confidence among Bitcoin investors and the prospect of them returning to the market following their recent heavy losses, that he feels Bitcoin was overvalued and is now seeing a healthy correction.

“Bitcoin was overvalued in December ‘17. There’s more sellers than buyers this year. So the price goes down. But there’s three things you gotta remember. The first is, this is a transaction settlement layer. It’s the most secure in the world. It’s got to be worth something. It can’t be worth zero.”

“The second is it’s the best performing asset class in the last ten years. It’s outperformed S&P, Dow, Nasdaq, et cetera, during the longest bull run. And so it experienced two 80% drops during that time, but the asset’s still up over 400% in the last two years,” he continued. “And the third thing is: that was all done by retail.”

‘Tulip Mania’ Invoked

bitcoin price chart
Bitcoin Price (BTC/USD) | Coinbase

Another commentator on the show asked why the Bitcoin bubble would have a different outcome than “Tulip Mania,” referring to the 400-year-old story of tulips becoming extremely lucrative in Holland and then going out of fashion, crashing the bulb price. Tulips were one of the earliest futures markets, as a result. Bitcoin, in reality, has a lot more money than the tulip bubble ever could have generated — even a crashed market would likely outsize the estimated size of the tulip market at that time.

To this, Pompliano said:

“I think what’s important to remember is that through 2017, all of the buyers were retail, right? And so now what you’re seeing in 2018 as the price has gone down, you’re starting to see institutions come in. And one of the things that doesn’t get talked about much is that most of these institutions are not buying on exchanges. They’re actually buying on the OTC market, which we don’t have great transparency into or insight. So what I think you’re seeing is the washout of these retail investors […]”

He was then cut off by a question about mining, which he answered deftly. He then said his firm had been pressing into Bitcoin the whole way down and that they will continue to acquire discounted Bitcoin, based on “very deep conviction” at Morgan Creek.

Morgan Creek owns a partnership called the Digital Asset Index Fund with Bitwise Asset Management, which enables large institutional clients to get convenient exposure to digital assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the myriad of tokenized assets therein.

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Bitcoin Analysis

Oversold Conditions Show Bitcoin Bottom



bitcoin futures cryptocurrency crypto



In the last 24 hours, the valuation of the crypto market increased from $137 billion to $140 billion after a minor recovery of around 2 percent.

Both major cryptocurrencies and small market cap tokens have ended the day with relatively minor losses in the range of 1 to 3 percent.

Is Bottom Near For Bitcoin?

The volume of Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped from $5.5 billion back to $4 billion over the past several days, by more than 27 percent. Given that the value of BTC has not fallen substantially during the time wherein its volume fell, a case can be made that the sell-pressure on the dominant cryptocurrency has subsided.

A cryptocurrency trader and economist Alex Krüger explained:

“Yesterday, BTC triggered my main oversold signal on the daily. This signal printed only once before: Jan/17/2015. Very close to a bottom that held for eight months, and was breached only once ever after, briefly, during the Aug/18/2015 flash crash.”

Generally, after a 30 to 40 percent drop, major cryptocurrencies tend to recover in the mid-term, as seen in the case of Ripple (XRP). A similar trend could be portrayed by BTC in the upcoming weeks if the asset could begin demonstrating stability at its low price range.

Even if BTC falls below the $4,000 mark prior to engaging in a corrective rally, which is a possibility given that the $4,000 support level was tested twice in the past five days, stability in the range of $3,800 to $4,200 could allow BTC to establish roots in the $4,000 region and signal a bottom.

“Some nice buyback wicks showing up, but don’t think we’re out of the woods until a daily close above green,” noted Hsaka, a cryptocurrency technical analyst.

Bitcoin is still only down 78 percent from its all-time high, which is relatively low when compared to the average drop in the price of BTC from its all-time high in previous major corrections. In 2011, 2013, and 2015, BTC recorded an average drop of over 85 percent in every major correction it experienced.

So far, VeChain, Binance Coin, and Bitcoin remain as the best performing cryptocurrencies throughout the bear market, with Binance Coin down 78 percent from its all-time high.

Tokens are in Trouble

On Friday, tokens seemed to be experiencing a sudden short-term recovery as Augur and Maker demonstrated gains in the range of 5 to 13 percent.

Chart provided by ATHCoinIndex

In the past 12 hours, Augur dropped by 10 percent and Maker recorded a decline of 7 percent, deleting their weekly gains.

From their all-time highs, most tokens, even those that have performed well against BTC and the US dollar in early 2017, are averaging a drop of around 98 percent.

With increasing pressure from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and dozens of pending cases against initial coin offering (ICO) projects being evaluated by local authorities, the price of tokens is expected to drop substantially in the weeks to come.

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Bitcoin Analysis

Crypto ETF Could Launch Bitcoin Price to $20,000 in 2019: BitPay COO



bitcoin etf vaneck bitcoin price



With Thanksgiving now in the books and the calendar just days away from turning the page to December, most bitcoin bulls are conceding defeat in regard to their 2018 crypto market predictions. However, the new year is just around the corner, and BitPay COO Sonny Singh believes that 2019 could bring good tidings to the bitcoin price.

Speaking during an interview on Bloomberg TV, Singh said that he believed that the crypto market would likely turn a corner at some point during the first two quarters of 2019 as major companies such as Fidelity and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) begin to roll out cryptocurrency products.

bitcoin price chart
BTC/USD | Coinbase

Fidelity, as CCN reported, is building a cryptoasset custody service targeted at institutional investors, while ICE — via its new crypto subsidiary, Bakkt — plans to launch a physically-settled bitcoin futures product in late January. Singh said that he expects other legacy financial firms to eventually follow suit and release products that compete with his company, BitPay, as well as other crypto stalwarts such as Coinbase.

He said that these launches, coupled with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) finally approving the first bitcoin ETF — which is by no means a certainty — will enable the bitcoin price to burst out of its slump and return toward its all-time high heading into late 2019.

“I would say, if these traditional incumbents do launch their products, actually, you would see price maybe around $15,000, possibly even $20,000 by the end of next year.”

However, hearkening back to comments he has made in the past, Singh expressed skepticism that the next rally will see crypto prices rise indiscriminately, irrespective of their fundamentals.

“I think there’s a big night and day difference between bitcoin and everything else. Bitcoin is the 800-pound gorilla. That’s the one that has the mass network effect. That’s the one that the traditional financial incumbents are building products around,” he said. “The other ones, I don’t know what’s going to happen to them….None of them are going to survive unless bitcoin survives first.”

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Bitcoin Analysis

79% Drop of Bitcoin is Smallest Major Correction to Date, Not All Gloomy



Bitcoin mining



Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced five major corrections to date, and the recent bear market of 2018 is the smallest major correction to date.

As seen in a table shared by a renowned trader and technical analyst Peter Brandt, BTC experienced a drop of 79.7 percent in the past eleven months as its price declined from $19,500 to $4,035.

On November 21, Bitcoin experienced a steep decline from $4,500 to $4,050 on fiat-to-cryptocurrency exchanges like Kraken and Coinbase. The dominant cryptocurrency swiftly recovered back to $4,500, but the sudden flash crash to the $4,000 support level placed BTC close to reaching an 80 percent drop from its all-time high.

Still Hope

Throughout the past nine years, BTC went through four large corrections excluding the 2018 bear market. In 2011, 2013, and 2015, Bitcoin recorded drops in the range of 82.6 percent to 94.3 percent, declining by 85.3 percent on average.

For BTC to record an 85 percent loss from its all-time high, it would have to drop to $2,950. But, there still is strong support at the $4,000 support level.

Even if BTC drops to $2,950, an 85 percent drop from its all-time high is only the average loss BTC recorded in the past four major corrections.

Previous corrections can be considered as references and could provide clues for when the current bear market may end. However, market conditions, infrastructure, and mainstream awareness are vastly different from 2011, 2013, and 2015.

The 79 percent decline in the price of BTC from $19,500 is said to be mainly caused by a lack of liquidity in Bitcoin markets. Trading giant Susquehanna executive Bart Smith noted that there are no viable investment vehicles for a regular retail trader. It is still difficult, without specific know-how, to invest in the cryptocurrency market.

In 2015, apart from some announcements of merchant adoptions, there were no signs of a major financial institution, bank, or asset manager of integrating major cryptocurrencies to improve the usability and accessibility of the asset class.

This year, Fidelity, the world’s fourth-largest asset manager, and ICE, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, introduced Fidelity Digital Assets and Bakkt to assist both retail investors and institutional investors in the traditional finance sector in investing in crypto.

The short-term price trend of cryptocurrencies does not accurately portray the last eleven months of positive developments in the cryptocurrency sector, and for that reason, high profile investors like billionaire Tim Draper, Mike Novogratz, and Susquehanna executive Bart Smith remain optimistic in the long-term trend of Bitcoin.

Smith explained:

“That has led to the second problem which is without the new capital on-ramp, liquidity has been very low. And so we’ve kind of seen a stable price all through summer, it was at $6,000 give or take. Volatility got really light at the end of July. So what happens is in that environment, if you have a contentious fork, it does not necessarily create a tremendous amount of confidence and when those sellers come in, there’s just no liquidity to absorb it. Hopefully, with Bakkt, Fidelity, and further regulations, there are going to be enough capital to soak it up.”

$4,000 is the Bottom?

It is too early to confirm that the cryptocurrency market has achieved a bottom and that BTC has stabilized in the low price range of $4,000 to $4,500.

Depending on the short-term price trend of BTC throughout November, several potential catalysts like Bakkt and a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) decision in February could trigger an accumulation period throughout the first quarter of 2019.

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Bitcoin Analysis

Bakkt, Fidelity Could Solve Bitcoin’s Liquidity Issue



bitcoin sidechain liquid network blockstream



Over the past week, the price of Bitcoin has dropped by more than 35 percent, and the majority of analysts in the crypto space have shared the sentiment that the crash was triggered by the contentious hard fork of Bitcoin Cash.

According to Bart Smith, the head of digital asset at trading giant Susquehanna, a lack of liquidity in Bitcoin markets allowed the dominant cryptocurrency to be vulnerable to a large sell-off caused by the Bitcoin Cash hash power war and hard fork.

In the months to come, Smith explained that the entrance of Fidelity, ICE, and Bakkt into the cryptocurrency market could increase the liquidity of BTC and lead to a rise in capital in the space to soak up big sell-offs.

Importance of Fidelity and Bakkt

Currently, it is fairly difficult for an average trader to invest in the cryptocurrency exchange market through trading platforms like Coinbase and Bitstamp. Investors are required to hand in photocopies of government-issued documents, undergo rigorous Know Your Customer (KYC) processes, and comply with policies enforced by exchanges.

The impractical systems adopted by cryptocurrency exchanges as per the request of government agencies in the US, Japan, South Korea, and other leading digital asset markets have limited the cryptocurrency market to a relatively small group of investors that possess a certain know-how to invest in the emerging asset class.

Smith explained:

“Number one, the on-ramps for new capital is very difficult. If you’re a global institution, it is still very difficult to buy Bitcoin in a way you might want to. A wealthy individual from the G.I. Generation is not going to take a high-resolution picture of their driver’s license and send it to a website and send money there. They want to invest with Fidelity. They want to invest with Bank of America.”

The Susquehanna executive added that the limited number of fiat on-ramps in the cryptocurrency market made it difficult for Bitcoin markets to absorb growing sell-pressure placed upon by investors that have started to lose confidence in the short-term trend of BTC due to the Bitcoin Cash hard fork fiasco.

“That has led to the second problem which is without the new capital on-ramp, liquidity has been very low. And so we’ve kind of seen a stable price all through summer, it was at $6,000 give or take. Volatility got really light at the end of July. So what happens is in that environment, if you have a contentious fork, it does not necessarily create a tremendous amount of confidence and when those sellers come in, there’s just no liquidity to absorb it. Hopefully, with Bakkt, Fidelity, and further regulations, there are going to be enough capital to soak it up.”

Targeting Retail Traders

As of now, both Fidelity and Bakkt are leaning towards institutional investors as their target client base. But, if financial institutions like Fidelity, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley begin to provide cryptocurrency investment services to retail traders as proposed in October, it could substantially increase the liquidity coming from individual investors in the crypto space.

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Bitcoin Analysis

Bitcoin Hits New Yearly Low at $4,280, Market Urgently Needs Rebound





Over the past 24 hours, the price of Bitcoin fell from $4,900 to $4,280, by more than 12.5 percent amidst an unforeseen short-term price drop.

On fiat-to-crypto exchanges like Coinbase and Kraken, which demonstrate a more accurate representation of the Bitcoin price given the premium on the Tether-to-BTC pair, the price of BTC dropped below the $4,300 mark for the first time in 2018.

$4,280: Where is the Bottom?

On November 19, a cryptocurrency trader and analyst known as The Crypto Dog stated that $4,800, despite being down from 6,300, is not a bottom for Bitcoin.

“$4800 was not a bottom by any means – my arbitrary line in the sand was the wrong arbitrary line. Judging by volume, we are still quite far from a bottom. So far this sell off has been relatively weak (volume wise). BTC / USD longs are rising, while shorts are barely touched. This dump has been straightforward spot selling, and no one is interested in buying.”

Previously, CCN reported that the low volume of BTC in a period of an intense sell-off and free fall suggests a further decline to the low $4,000 region is likely, especially if the volume of BTC begins to increase in the days to come.

The Crypto Dog reaffirmed that a spike in volume on Bitcoin could lead to a decline to a low range at $4,000. Since then, the price of BTC has fallen from $4,800 to $4,250.

“The bears aren’t even pushing, $BTC is just free-falling. Very weak dump, imagine what it looks like when the volume comes in. A short-term reversal could happen at any moment – shorting with high leverage is a terrible idea. However, if you are trying to knife catch, be patient. No one should be in a rush to long this.”

Within the past three days, BTC recorded a 32 percent drop in price without immense sell pressure and large sell orders from the bears in the market. In the short-term, there exists a possibility for a quick turnaround, but investors also have to respect the possibility of a further decline to $4,000 and a test of the $4,000 support level.

Given the intensity of the drop of BTC in the last 24 hours, a minor corrective rally is expected, as long as the sell volume of BTC remains low.

South Korea Has Gone Quiet

The volume of the cryptocurrency exchange market has dropped substantially over the past seven days, as the cryptocurrency market lost more than $50 billion of its valuation.

South Korea has consistently been the third largest cryptocurrency exchange market throughout 2018 and the drop of Bithumb, Upbit, and Korbit’s volume has put the market at risk of dropping out of its position.

If BTC fails to recover to mid-$4,000 in the upcoming days, trading activity in the global cryptocurrency exchange market is expected to drop even further.

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Bitcoin Analysis

Plunging Stock, Crypto Markets Leave Investors Searching for Answers



bitcoin price fall off cliff



The Monday Massacre reverberated throughout equities markets today, leaving its mark not only on the bitcoin price — which dropped below $5,000 for the first time this year — but on tech stocks as well.

Recent Bitcoin Price Drop Attracts Bearish Analysis

To make matters worse, the bitcoin price has not yet bottomed out, according to technical analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence.

The global financial media portal eyes a further 70 percent drop in the digital currency that could lead its price as low as $1,500. For reference, bitcoin this year has already lost more than 60 percent of its value. Last Wednesday’s sell-off has sparked a new wave of bearish targets for the cryptocurrency after it broke through well-publicized support near $6,000. Analysts are calling $4,500 and $3,500 the next potential support levels.

bitcoin price chart
BITCOIN/USD CHART | SOURCE: TRADINGVIEW.COM, COINBASE

Travis Kling, the founder of crypto hedge fund Ikigai, is among the ones that fear an extended downward action in bitcoin markets. The former Point72 investment manager stressed that the latest Bitcoin Cash blockchain split could damage the overall crypto market in the long-term.

“There’s a small chance that something really bad could happen related to Bitcoin Cash that could then impact the entire crypto market,” he said.

An ongoing dispute between prominent crypto figures such as Roger Ver and Craig Wright over whose project would be activated in the most recent hard fork has sucked billions of dollars out of the crypto market. One of the supporters of Ver-allied Bitcoin ABC is Bitmain, the world’s leading crypto mining company. They had reportedly pledged to deviate hash power from Bitcoin to Bitcoin Cash to ensure that Bitcoin ABC’s BCH implementation won out, reducing investor and mining confidence in the short-term stability of the original Bitcoin.

Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone supports the sentiment surrounding the BCH fork as a catalyst for the crypto market’s decline, but his firm’s analysis believes the slide could turn more serious.

“The pump sparked the drop for the Bitcoin Cash hard fork,” he wrote. “That pump that began a few weeks ago got the market a bit too offsides with speculative longs playing for the good old days. But this is an enduring bear market.”

Chipmakers, FAANG Stocks Suffer Major Losses

nvidia
Source: Shutterstock

The impact of a plunging crypto market throughout the year also reflected on the performance of two mainstream chipmakers, AMD and Nvidia. The US companies, which drew out from manufacturing crypto mining equipment citing poor returns, recently posted lackluster sales forecasts for the current period, sending their respective share value to double-digit percentage losses. While AMD stock plunged as much as 11 percent this Monday, Nvidia shares also recorded a 17 percent depreciation in value.

The US stock market, in general, went through a bloody Monday trading session. The major tech giants that were bullish most of the year also deformed under their poor sales forecasts and slow global growth. The stocks of FAANG companies, an acronym for Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Google, are already down circa 20 percent since their all-time high.

apple stock
BATS: AAPL 1D CHART | SOURCE: TRADINGVIEW.COM

The jittery performance came in light of the poor business relationships between the US and China. The trade war intensified when two countries clashed over the weekend at a Pacific Rim Summit. For the first time in three decades, two of the world’s leading economies could not find common ground on their global trading strategies. The negative outcome sent a panic across the market, leading the Nasdaq to post a 2.7 percent loss in a day. The S&P 500 index, at the same time, fell 1.6 percent.

The presidents of both the US and China are scheduled to meet later this month at the G20 summit. The meeting will be watched closely by every professional investor, and stocks could even start correcting to the upside ahead of the summit.

The US-China trade war, coupled with factors from the BCH hash war, has certainly spurred investors to take out their money off the market — whether their market of choice is traditional equities or cryptoassets — for the time being. Meanwhile, the US dollar is also reversing from its bull trend. The greenback fell to its two-week low on Monday and is looking to fall further on slow global growth.

Crypto Markets: Technical Outlook

bitcoin price
BITCOIN 1W CHART | SOURCE: TRADINGVIEW.COM, COINBASE

The bitcoin market has been fluctuating inside a falling wedge formation since the beginning of this year. A falling wedge generally points to stronger breakout actions towards the north. So, just from an indicator’s point of view, there is a likelihood of bitcoin testing $3,500-3628 as its next bottom range and attempting a sharp pullback towards the upper trendline of the falling wedge formation. In the event of a breakout, the price could jump as high as 7,435-fiat.

We have placed the bitcoin bottoms predicted by other analysts to highlight potential downside actions. $3,500 without a doubt is an achievable bear target. A breakdown action below that level could put pullback pressure on circa $3,000-level, a strong support from September 2017. Any extended downside action from this level points to a free fall towards $1,500 — as predicted by Bloomberg — with a potential pullback level at $1,788. There is indeed no concrete support available below $1,788, according to the Coinbase chart above.

Nevertheless, if stability returns to the BCH market, it should reinject confidence in the bitcoin market as well. Therefore, the BTC/USD index staying above $3,500 would remain a bullish sign ahead of a potential bitcoin ETF approval within the next year and the launch of Bakkt next month.

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Bitcoin Analysis

Ripple Surges 8% as Crypto Market Adds $4 Billion Overnight





Over the last 24 hours, Ripple (XRP) has surged by more than 8 percent to $0.51, as the valuation of the crypto market increased by $4 billion from $181 billion to $185 billion.

On November 15, the valuation of the crypto market fell by $27 billion from $210 billion and a recovery to the $200 billion mark could require weeks to months of stability.

As one cryptocurrency technical analyst explained, “BTC bulls trading in defense after recent drop below key support, now need a powerful comeback to initiate spring as last resort. further lower lows without violent comeback would indicate prolonged bear market — likewise, failure in printing new lows will attract buyers.”

Two Scenarios For Bitcoin and the Crypto Market

The sheer intensity of the November 15 crash of the cryptocurrency market has limited the number of scenarios in which Bitcoin and the rest of the market could recover by the 2018’s end.

Several recognized cryptocurrency analysts including Willy Woo said that Bitcoin is not likely to breakout of major resistance levels until mid-2019.

Cred, a Bitcoin trader, said that if the price of BTC rebounds to the $6,000 mark in the short-term, a short squeeze could trigger the market to experience a corrective rally.

“If price reclaims $6,000 – $6,200, all shorts below yearly lows are gonna puke/get liquidated. This usually causes a very fast rip up — markets aren’t nice to people who’re wrong.”

There are several positive developments lined up for the BTC market including the BTC futures market launch by Bakkt and ICE, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange.

Dissimilar to existing futures markets operated by CME Group and CBOE, Bakkt physically delivers BTC to its buyers and as such, Bakkt could have a real impact on the supply of BTC and ultimately, its price.

“ICE entering crypto feels like a big deal. It’s an established, respected & powerful player in the finance industry. In other words, large institutions trust ICE with their money, including those institutional investors who many people think are key to the next bull run. Also noteworthy is the fact that Bakkt will custody & deliver real bitcoin. That means institutional inflows would reduce supply & thus (maybe) increase price too,” Jake Chervinsky, a government enforcement defense and securities litigation attorney at Kobre & Kim LLP, said

This week, a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) was approved in Switzerland, a move that could increase the liquidity of BTC in the traditional finance sector of Europe.

Is a Rally Before 2018 Possible?

The volume of BTC has declined back to its $4 billion mark, a level which the dominant cryptocurrency has maintained relatively well throughout the past four months.

Based on current market conditions, a significant surge in the price of major cryptocurrencies is highly unlikely. But, a gradual increase in price due to the anticipation towards Bakkt until early December remains a possibility, especially if Bakkt gains traction among investors in the regulated US market.

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Bitcoin Analysis

Downtrend in Crypto Market Continues as BCH Falls





Over the last 24 hours, the valuation of the crypto market has fallen from $185 billion to $181 billion, by around $4 billion.

On November 15, amidst one of the worst single-day corrections in all of 2018, the crypto market saw a wipeout of more than $27 billion. The market extended losses throughout the past two days.

Bitcoin Cash, even with the combined value of Bitcoin Cash SV (BCHSV) and Bitcoin Cash ABC (BCHABC), has fallen by more than seven percent. Subsequent to the fork, the price of BCHABC, the original Bitcoin Cash chain with the roadmap set forth by bitcoincash.org, dropped by more than 15 percent to $250.

$4,800 the Bottom For Bitcoin?

Yesterday, on November 16, CCN reported that Crypto Rand, a cryptocurrency technical analyst and trader, said that the probability of a $4,800 to $5,000 bottom for Bitcoin (BCH) is increasing.

“Crypto Rand, a respected digital asset analyst, stated that a fall to the $4,800 to $5,000 range is possible, given that technical indicators have not shown any signs of a bottom,” the report read.

The Crypto Dog, another prominent analyst, said that a bottom at $4,800 has become more likely for BTC.

“Same target I’ve held since February of this year, I think there is a strong possibility that $4,800 is the bottom.

While both major cryptocurrencies and small tokens have started to demonstrate independent price movements by breaking its correlation with BTC, a further 12 percent drop from $5,500 to $4,800 could result in intensified downward movements for cryptocurrencies with lower daily volumes.

Currently, the daily trading volume of BTC is hovering at around $5 billion. In contrast, Ripple (XRP), Bitcoin Cash (BCH), and Stellar (XLM) are demonstrating volumes in the range of $100 million to $800 million, less than 16 percent of the volume of BTC.

If the most dominant cryptocurrency in the market continues to demonstrate weak momentum and massive sell-pressure, then digital assets with lower volume will inevitably fall with BTC.

On Thursday, almost immediately after the fall of BTC from $6,300 to $5,500, Josh Rager, an investor in various blockchain initiatives, said:

“$5,500 area currently holding up BTC, when (it’s only a matter of time) a daily candle closes below here it will head to $4,900 area Strong support between $4,300 to $4,600 – BTC will likely bounce very hard here – in my opinion, a good place to buy R/R regardless if it heads lower”

Overall Negative

The sentiment around cryptocurrencies has generally been negative this week, due to the sheer intensity of the crash of the market over the past several days.

For tokens and small market cryptocurrencies, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s accelerated investigations into token sales and initial coin offerings (ICOs) could lead to a large short-term drop in confidence from investors in the public market.

With Paragon and AirFox already ordered by the U.S. SEC to refund investors and pay a $350,000 additional fine, investors will likely avoid investing in tokens until regulatory frameworks around the space are properly established.

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Bitcoin Analysis

Price Holding Losses, Eyes Recovery as Dollar Slides



bitcoin price ready to rally



The bitcoin price on Friday plunged 0.85 percent against the US dollar, now trading at 5528-fiat.

Bitcoin Price Seeks to Claw Back Lost Ground

The digital currency has had a shocking week so far, with its value losing almost $1,200 within just five days. Not only bitcoin, but the entire cryptocurrency market also had to “bear” losses worth billions of dollars as a civil crypto war brewed inside the Bitcoin Cash community. It has already led to the split of Bitcoin Cash blockchain. Now, the market expects a return to normalcy.

Bitcoin initially traded shakily, owing to the displeasure of investors who preferred to stay out of its trades until the dust settled. The price started rebounding on Thursday after the BCH fork went live, rising from a low at 5188-fiat to as high as 5611-fiat. That marks more than 8 percent in intraday gains.

BTC/USD 15M CHART | SOURCE: COINBASE, TRADINGVIEW.COM

Bitcoin expects to further its gains amidst favorable macroeconomic factors. A Federal Reserve official today expressed doubts about the outlook of an interest rate hike scheduled at the end of this year. The comments rattled a strong US dollar, which dropped to its weekly low.

The technicalities do not support a robust bullish correction, anyway. The BTC/USD pair is trading in the middle of nowhere, with no bottom established yet. The next crucial support area is near 3027-fiat from September 2017 while a psychological barrier sits somewhere near 4500-fiat. The pair then again remains capped by strong resistance levels as it pursues a more substantial bullish correction.

BTC/USD 1D CHART | SOURCE: COINBASE, TRADINGVIEW.COM

On the daily chart, the BTC/USD RSI indicator is inside an oversold region, awaiting correction from bulls. The Stochastic Oscillator is also inside a buying sentiment area following the latest drop. At least in near-term, we are looking at a bullish bias.

While trading inside a falling wedge formation, BTC/USD can expect to restest the lower trendline for a potential bounce back towards the upper trendline. This action would be too obvious, which is why we have placed a Fibonacci retracement level to understand potential entry/exit levels — as defined in the intraday analysis as follows.

BTC/USD Intraday Analysis

We are looking at a range that is defined by 5414-fiat as interim support and 5709-fiat as interim resistance. BTC/USD has stabilized near-term following the latest correction, allowing us to expect a further bullish action. That said, we have already entered a long position towards 5709-fiat while maintaining our stop-loss order just three-pips below the level we entered from. That should minimize our losses if the downtrend resumes.

If BTC/USD manages to break above 5709-fiat, we will enter a new long position towards the 50 percent Fibonacci level at 5871-fiat. A stop loss just three-pips below the entry position would protect us from heavy losses should the uptrend reverse.

Looking to the downside, a break below 5414-support would have us enter a short position towards 5354-fiat while eyeing 5188-fiat as a potential breakdown target. On both the short positions, we will maintain a stop loss 5-pips above the entry position to define our risk management against the bulls.

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Bitcoin Analysis

Crypto Market Recovers, But is a Fall to $4,800 Possible For Bitcoin?





After recording one of the worst sell-offs in all of 2018, the crypto market has experienced a minor corrective rally, adding $8 billion to its valuation.

The Bitcoin (BTC) price is approaching a resistance level at $5,600, a minor resistance level BTC will have to surpass to potentially eye a rally to $5,800 and potentially re-enter the $6,000 region.

Since August, BTC had defended the $6,000 support level, which has since turned into a major resistance level. Hence, if BTC initiates a corrective rally throughout the next three to four days to the $6,000 level, then it will be possible for the dominant cryptocurrency to end 2018 with a positive note.

However, if BTC struggles to breakout of the $6,000 level, then it will be difficult for the market to escape its low price range by the end of 2018.

Bitcoin Downtrend Still Possible

A further downward movement by Bitcoin is still possible from the mid-$5,000 zone. Cryptocurrency trader and technical analyst DonAlt said that BTC had a decent daily movement on November 16, but it will need to show some momentum in the high $5,000 region to confirm a positive short-term movement.

“It’s been a good day for BTC. That doesn’t change the fact that we’re approaching resistance. On the charts are the three setups that I’d be willing to trade. S/R flip or rejection on red, long green or just a straight up nuke from here.”

Crypto Rand, a respected digital asset analyst, stated that a fall to the $4,800 to $5,000 range is possible, given that technical indicators have not shown any signs of a bottom.

Prior to the sudden 11 percent drop of BTC, Willy Woo, a Bitcoin analyst and the founder of Woobull.com, said that BTC demonstrated a typical sell signal. Woo analyzed both technical and fundamental indicators of BTC including the Bitcoin network’s transaction volume, to predict a downtrend.

“This last reading of our blockchain and macro market indicators is still in play. What has changed is that NVTS has now broken its support, typically a sell signal,” said Woo, adding that all of his indicators show a bearish trend. “All our blockchain indicators remain bearish. NVT, NVTS, MVRV, BNM, NVM. They are experimental but have served to make very correct calls to date, even when traditional on-exchange indicators were reading to the contrary.”

The volume of BTC remains at $6 billion, still at a high level due to the spike in daily volume on November 14. On Wednesday, the volume of BTC temporarily spiked to $8 billion, doubling its volume within a three-day span.

Independent Price Movements

Over the last 24 hours, Ripple (XRP) and Stellar (XLM) recorded an increase in price in the range of 2 to 4 percent. Primarily because of the downtrend of BTC, major cryptocurrencies and small tokens have started to demonstrate independent price movements.

A lack of dependence on BTC can be considered as a positive change in the market, which relied on the short-term price trend of Bitcoin for at least the past four months.

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Bitcoin Analysis

Bitcoin Price Decline Will be a Short-Term Event



brian kelly bitcoin price



For the first time in three months, Bitcoin initiated its first major move. Unfortunately, for investors in the crypto market, BTC plunged by more than 11 percent, engaging in one of the most intense sell-offs in a 24-hour period in all of 2018.

Bitcoin Price Tumbles

bitcoin price
BTC/USD | Coinbase

On CNBC Fast Money, BKCM founder and CEO Brian Kelly stated that the recent drop of BTC and the rest of the crypto market could be mainly attributed to the civil war of Bitcoin Cash (BCH), wherein two camps, one led by Craig Steven Wright, CoinGeek, and Calvin Ayre, and the other led by ABC, Bitmain, ViaBTC, and Jihan Wu, are competing against one another to operate a chain of BCH that secures consensus in the community.

“After some real quiet period, lowest volatility, almost in Bitcoin history, all of a sudden today things exploded, so what happened? Bitcoin Cash, which forked off of Bitcoin last year, is doing a hard fork. Now, when you do a hard fork, everybody usually agrees. But in this particular case, everybody is not agreeing. So we’ve got ourselves a crypto civil war, and that has people in the market concerned,” Kelly said.

Why is Bitcoin Cash Affecting the Rest of the Market?

Bitcoin cash hard fork
Source: Shutterstock

The problem with the BCH civil war is that it has started to have an impact on the rest of the market. Calvin Ayre’s camp, called Bitcoin SV, turned it into a hash power competition, threatening to engage a 51 percent attack against the Bitcoin Cash network, which when carried out, gives Ayre and his camp the ability to manipulate BCH blocks.

Bitmain and Jihan Wu have a significant influence over the Chinese cryptocurrency mining community. As the largest mining equipment manufacturer and mining pool operator, Bitmain could also switch its hash power from BTC to BCH to fight against CoinGeek and Calvin Ayre.

If that is to happen, then the hash rate of BTC will decline in the short-term, which could potentially lead to difficulties in mining blocks at a fast rate, slowing down the network.

Conclusively, if the hash rate war between CoinGeek and Bitcoin Cash continues, then it will have a negative impact on both Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash. As the most dominant cryptocurrency in the market, any negative sentiment surrounding BTC will inevitably pose an effect on the rest of the market.

“People are concerned that both Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash markets, their networks might slow down, they might not work as well, the software upgrade may not go through or if it does go through, we will end up with some chaos. People started selling, that triggered stops, everybody got concerned. The entire market settled down. In my view, a very short-term event,” explained Kelly, adding that his fund invested during the downtrend.

The Event Maybe Short-Term, But Hash Power War Isn’t

If the hash power conflict between CoinGeek and BCH caused the drop, then it is possible that it continues to affect the crypto market in the weeks to come.

Due to the intensity of the sell-off in the market, while a corrective rally is always a possibility, it is more likely for the crypto market to remain in the low region of $180 billion in the short-term.

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Bitcoin Analysis

Bitcoin Market Cap Below $100 Billion as BCH Hard Fork Spooks Investors



bitcoin ghost



It has been more than 24 hours since bitcoin scared investors with a sudden 10 percent drop. But there hasn’t been a concrete recovery action — yet.

The bitcoin-to-dollar exchange rate has surged 2.21 percent from its previous low at 5291-fiat, now trading at 5408-fiat. The coin’s market cap has risen likewise but remains below the three-figure billion dollar valuation. The weekly chart on Coinbase indicates BTC/USD is testing the support area of a giant falling wedge formation. Technically, a falling wedge formation predicts a potential breakout action. But in the case of bitcoin, the negative trend more or less is driven by fears raised at the behest of a hard fork event.

Bitcoin Cash Hard Fork

bitcoin 1W Chart | SOURCE: TRADINGVIEW.COM, COINBASE

The ongoing Bitcoin Cash (BCH) hard fork has been touted by some as the main perpetrator of the latest crypto market crash. The software upgrade has split the original BCH blockchain into two networks, tentatively called BCHABC and BCHSV. Traders are pondering whether the coin, which itself broke from the original Bitcoin blockchain, is weighing on its older sibling.

BKCM’s Brian Kelly thinks investors are confused about the outcome of the said hard fork. They are running away from both the BTC and BCH markets, fearing slowdown that may ponder upon their holdings in near-term.

“People started selling. That triggered stops. Everybody got concerned,” Kelly explained on CNBC Fast Money. “And that’s what happened today — the entire market sell-down.”

Kelly expected the entire sell-off episode to be a “short-term event,” adding that it could be an opportunity for large investors to enter the space at the newfound bottom.

Meltem Demirors, chief strategy officer at CoinShares, supported the theory but provided a separate fundamental altogether. To her, it would be the failure of second-class coins that would allow investors to jump back on the bitcoin train.

“They’re going to need to start firing employees. They’re going to need to cut costs,” she said. “You’re going to see consolidation, and some of these assets, inevitably, will get marked to zero.”

Bearish Predictions

Many analysts believe that the bitcoin downtrend is far from over, and the coin is yet to find a bottom level.

Stephen Innes, Oanda Corp Asia’s trading head, predicted that the BCH hard fork could destabilize the crypto market for far longer than expected. According to the analyst, BTC price should stay on a downward path and break the psychological support level at $5,000.

“Market opens the door to a test of $2,500 as bitcoin retail traders move from buying on a dip to full-out panic mode,” Innes told Bloomberg.

Meanwhile, global crypto exchanges have pledged to support the new BCH alternative with an aim to improve the current market sentiment.

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Bitcoin Analysis

Bitcoin Price Sinks to New Yearly Low as Sell-Off Batters Crypto Markets



bitcoin price collapse



The crypto market’s extended stable action took its last breath on Wednesday as the bitcoin price dipped to a new yearly low at 5280-fiat.

The BTC/USD index fell more than 12 percent ahead of the US trading session, now trading at 5439-fiat on Coinbase. The pair was trading comfortably inside a narrow trading range since September, leading many to believe that it had established a bottom around 6000-fiat. The latest selling action brought BTC/USD to its weakest mark since October 2017.

The bitcoin flash-crash cannot be fit inside the box of technicalities and must have a strong fundamental reason behind it. This kind of price action generally appears when exchanges trade unrealistically, or some kind of regulatory action takes place. It will take a while for the market to understand the real catalysts behind the ongoing breakdown action.

Meanwhile, the US dollar continues to stay near its 16-month peak level. The greenback is benefiting from the speculation of an interest rate hike in December. Concerns over Italy‘s budget and ongoing Brexit talks are also injecting positive fundamentals to the dollar’s bullish bias.

BTC/USD Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Price Crashes to New Yearly Low | SOURCE: TradingView.com

In the previous analysis, BTC/USD was trending lower inside a falling wedge formation, indicating a near-term breakout action according to traditional technical indications. But the flash-crash has changed the dynamics upside down, now bringing the pair inside a large falling wedge formation — as can be seen in the chart above. According to this update, BTC/USD has the potential to fall as low as 4500-fiat at the end of this bear cycle, before it attempts a brief rebound towards the upper trendline of the said wedge formation.

The RSI and Stoch on daily charts have dipped or are going to fall inside their respective oversold sentiment areas. The price continues to trade lower than it’s 100 and 200-period simple moving averages. Overall, its the most extreme bearish bias the market has seen in the past three months — most because $6,000 was supposed to hold the fort against bears.

BTC/USD Intraday Analysis

BTC/USD 15M CHART | SOURCE: TRADINGVIEW.COM, COINBASE

We were able to exit our short position on a small profit but ended up wearing an equally small loss after our stops against the long trades got executed. Now, according to our intraday strategy, we are in the middle of nowhere, and the levels we have in hand do not hold any new historical significance. Typically, we should not trade in this choppy market. And probably, we will keep ourselves out of it. But to those who want to trade the market anyway, feel free to use what could have been our strategy.

That said, the BTC/USD pair has established a new yearly low, which serves us as a decent interim support level. To the upside, 5633-fiat is looking like a proper interim resistance level. We expect the pair would attempt a pullback from support to clear a long position scenario towards 5633-fiat. If one wants to go long amidst strong bearish bias, he or she should make sure to keep their stop losses just 2-pips below the entry point.

A breakdown action looks possible at this moment. That said, a break below support should keep traders away from the market. We don’t know how far this downtrend can go, so better to be safe than sorry.

In case BTC/USD breaks above the 5633-resistance level, then a long position towards 5712-fiat looks achievable. Nevertheless, maintaining a stop loss order just 3-pips below the entry level would minimize losses should the bearish bias extend.

Trade safely!

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Bitcoin Analysis

Crypto Market Wipes Out $8B, Bitcoin Cash Down 24.4% in 1 Week





Over the past 12 hours, more than $8 billion was wiped out from the crypto market, as several major digital assets including Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and Stellar (XLM) suffered.

For the first time in the past ten days, the price of BCH has dropped below the $500 mark to $480. Within the past week, after securing a monthly high at $630, BCH has dropped by more than 24.4 percent.

What’s Happening to Bitcoin Cash?

Prior to a hard fork, especially a contentious hard fork in which a chain split is almost guaranteed, investors tend to buy a significant amount of the cryptocurrency that is expected to fork. When the chain splits, investors receive both cryptocurrencies from the hard fork, as seen in the case of Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash in August 2017.

Hence, prior to the scheduled November 15 hard fork, the price of Bitcoin Cash increased by more than 50 percent, as Bitcoin Cash SV, a camp led by Craig Steven Wright (CSW), Coingeek, and Calvin Ayre, announced its plans to hard fork.

Tomorrow, the Bitcoin Cash network hard forks. As such, a further increase in price was expected given that following the hard fork, BCH holders will be able to obtain BCH SV at a 1:1 ratio.

However, with one day left before the scheduled hard fork, BCH recorded a large drop of over seven percent and experienced one of its most intense sell-offs in recent months.

It is possible that the conflict between the Bitcoin SV camp and the Bitcoin Cash camp, which has become personal amongst the key figures involved primarily due to the threats made by CSW against developers and miners on the original Bitcoin Cash network, led investors to lose confidence in the short-term trend of the asset.

As CCN reported on November 9, CSW said:

“I will ensure that ANY miner passing DSV can be held liable (under the law of the UK, China and US, they can be) The end will be a drop in value for those using DSV And, I will help ensure those who lose claim against this act. The developers in ABC will be able to be held personally liable. Oh… I do have a Masters in Law on just this area.”

The short-term downward price trend of BCH intensified as an increasing number of traders started to short BCH on BitMEX. If BCH had rebounded swiftly, a short squeeze could have led to a speedy recovery. But, a lack of momentum and the sheer intensity of the sell-off led BCH to lose nearly 30 percent of its value within the past eight to nine days.

Where is Market Headed to?

Bitcoin SV has taken over Bitcoin Cash on Poloniex, one of the few exchanges allowing early margin trading on the yet to be released SV.

The short-term trend of BCH mostly depends on the ability of the market to initiate a corrective rally in the next 12 to 24 hours, but it is unlikely under current market conditions.

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Bitcoin Analysis

Why Comparing Bitcoin with Centralized Systems Based on TPS is Wrong



bitcoin apples and oranges



On the Bitcoin network, whether it is a transaction worth $100 or $1 million, it costs the same miner’s fee to process the payment.

On October 16, a $194 million payment was moved on the Bitcoin network with a mere $0.1 fee nearly instantaneously. Through legacy banking systems, weeks of paperwork, days of settlement system, and a significant load of compliance work is required to clear a payment of that size.

The research of Nic Carter, a Partner at Castle Island Ventures and the co-founder of Coinmetrics.io, found that comparing Bitcoin to other cryptocurrencies and centralized systems like PayPal based on transactions per second (TPS) is inaccurate.

Why Bitcoin Comparison isn’t All That Simple

As shown by the chart below created by Carter, centralized systems like credit card network operators and Bitcoin target a different market. While credit and debit card network operators mostly focus on processing small payments at a large capacity, the users of Bitcoin tend to rely on the network for larger payments.

“Bitcoin transactions tend to be quite large. It’s hard to know the precise number, but your average transaction will be in the thousands of dollars, possibly tens of thousands. Your median transaction is well over $100,” Carter explained.

Multi-million dollar payments are quite frequently moved on the Bitcoin blockchain network, and on some occasions, as seen in the $194 million BTC payment processed last month, large net-worth investors settle substantially large payments that are rarely settled using credit cards.

In November 2015, Chinese billionaire Liu Yiqian purchased a painting worth $170 million with his American Express credit card. That is, a payment $24 million smaller than the BTC transaction settled last month. Yet, due to the rarity of the transaction, the $170 million credit card purchase was reported by mainstream media outlets and national television networks, because it is not normal for an average credit card user to purchase anything larger than $10,000 to $100,000.

“What critics miss when they fixate on TPS is the simple fact that the users of these systems tend to have a good idea of what they want from them. Low-stakes, small value transfers with some reversibility guarantees work just fine on Venmo, Paypal, or Visa. Yes — these don’t work for the unbanked, but then again virtually no financial infrastructure does. This stuff takes a long time to build, as does the trust in the system.”

Based on one metric that is TPS, Bitcoin could seem like an inferior network to centralized protocols. But, Bitcoin can process significantly large payments on the network with relative ease, which centralized systems simply cannot do due to compliance and regulatory requirements.

TPS is Not the Only Measurement

While TPS can be used as a measurement, it is one of many measurements that can be utilized to evaluate and compare payment networks.

Carter noted:

“So, in short, value transfer systems vary along at least three major axes, not just one. The response to ‘Our system does 500,000 TPS” is “at what cost?’ Are you deferring settlement? Do you have a single validator? Do you require that transactors be part of the US-controlled financial system?”

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Bitcoin Analysis

$20 Trillion US Debt Will Inevitably Lead to Big Crypto Boom: Voorhees



US debt bitcoin crypto



ShapeShift CEO Erik Voorhees has said that the growing debt of the US, which hovers at around $21.7 trillion as of November, will inevitably cause a big spike in crypto.

“When the next global financial crisis occurs, and the world realizes organizations with $20 trillion in debt can’t possibly ever pay it back and thus must print it instead, and thus fiat is doomed. Watch what happens to crypto.”

Voorhees suggested that to repay the national debt, the government and the federal reserve will be forced to print more fiat money, leading to inflation and a decline in the purchasing power of the US dollar.

Major Financial Institutions Including BlackRock Worried

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager with more than $6.317 trillion in assets under management, is the latest major financial institution to express concerns regarding the rapidly increasing national debt of the US.

The conglomerate’s CEO, Larry Fink, stated that the US government is heading towards a supply problem due to the country’s increasing budget deficit. Beginning next year, Fink noted that the US could be forced to borrow $1 trillion a year.

The rising inflation rate of the US dollar, as shown by the growing interest rates of the Federal Reserve, has become too high to sustain the economy.

“That could be the real issue related to everything: where we have interest rates becoming too high to sustain the economy with its growth rates,” BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said.

us debt bitcoin
US Debt Clock | Source: National Debt Clocks

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU Stern School and a cryptocurrency skeptic, echoed the sentiment of Fink, emphasizing that the interest rate has increased to a point in which the US economy cannot match it with its growth rate.

“Second, because the stimulus was poorly timed, the US economy is now overheating, and inflation is rising above target. The US Federal Reserve will thus continue to raise the federal funds rate from its current 2% to at least 3.5% by 2020, and that will likely push up short- and long-term interest rates as well as the US dollar,” Roubini said, predicting a major financial crisis by 2020.

If a financial crisis is to occur by the end of 2020 as predicted by many economists in the US primarily due to the overly high-interest rate set forth by the Federal Reserve, then the US dollar could drop substantially in value and open up investors to stores of value such as gold and cryptocurrencies whose value is not dependent of the global economy.

Next 10 Years Will be Interesting

Vinny Lingham, the founder of Civic and a partner at Multicoin Capital, said that more wealth would be created in crypto in the next 10 years than the past ten years, despite several large corrections the market faced and will continue to experience in the years to come.

“More wealth will be created in crypto over the next 10 years, than over the prior 10 years. But remember, like any success story, it’s not going to be a straight line up. Keep believing and just be patient.”

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Bitcoin Analysis

$6 Billion Wiped Out of Crypto Market in 48 Hours: Where to Next?





Over the last 48 hours, since November 7, the global crypto market has lost $6 billion of its valuation as it dropped from $220 billion to $214 billion, while Bitcoin remained stable.

On November 6, major cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin Cash (BCH), Ripple (XRP), Ethereum (ETH), Stellar (XLM), and Cardano (ADA) recorded large gains in the range of 5 to 30 percent, as BCH surged by around 40 percent within a two-day span.

Subsequent to demonstrating a significant increase in value, most major cryptocurrencies retraced, which was expected amongst the majority of cryptocurrency traders in the community.

On a Monthly Basis, Crypto Still Performing Well

Fueled by the drop of Bitcoin Cash and many small market cap tokens, the cryptocurrency market recorded a drop of 2.7 percent in its valuation. But, on a monthly basis, the market is up more than $16 billion since mid-October, from $198 billion to $214 billion.

Since October 15, the crypto market added $22 billion to its valuation, rising by more than 11 percent. A minor correction was expected following a major 11 percent increase within a 30-day span.

Despite the 2.7 percent drop in the valuation of the market, the volume of major cryptocurrencies remains relatively high. In early October, the daily trading volume of BTC was hovering at around $3.2 billion.

As of November 9, the daily trading volume of BTC remains above the $4.5 billion mark, up 40 percent within the past three weeks. The noticeable surge in the trading activity of BTC and other major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum is attributable to the general increase in positivity and optimism towards the mid-term growth trend of the market.

Many traders consider the Bitcoin futures market of Bakkt to act as a major catalyst for the next rally of BTC, as unlike other futures trading platforms, Bakkt physically delivers BTC to future contract holders. Hence, institutional investors could actually impact the price of BTC in a positive manner, as CCN reported on November 8.

While the general sentiment towards BTC and major cryptocurrencies is positive, the recent crackdown on decentralized crypto exchange EtherDelta has led investors to be more cautious in investments in tokens.

Tokens in Trouble

On November 7, CCN reported that tokens could suffer a correction throughout the months to come if the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) decides that most tokens are securities under existing regulations.

“While many tokens have recorded gains in the range of 5 to 20 percent over the last week, regulatory uncertainty around tokens and their regulatory nature could lead to a decline in the value of tokens in the weeks to come, as the SEC releases its new guideline.”

Over the last 24 hours, decentralized cryptocurrency exchange EtherDelta was targeted by the SEC for the distribution of unregistered securities, and the categorization of tokens as securities could lead to a further decline in the price of most tokens.

Already, tokens have started to drop substantially in volume, as seen by the sell-off of Polymath, 0x, and Basic Attention token.

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Bitcoin Analysis

Price Above $6500 Resistance post US Midterm Elections





Bitcoin on Wednesday challenged new highs as price against the US Dollar surged 1.42 percent within a few hours.

CHART FROM TUESDAY NOVEMBER 7, 2018 | SOURCE: TRADINGVIEW.COM

The BTC/USD pair built upon the near-term bullish scenario after breaking above the interim resistance explained in our previous analysis. A breakout action above 6421-fiat started attracting long positions towards 6500-fiat as the primary upside target. The pair rallied and established a new intraday high towards 6515-fiat before retreating across the exchanges. It is now trading at 6507-fiat.

The Dollar meanwhile slumped very little ahead of the US midterm elections. As of now, the Democratic party has announced its victory after winning 218 seats to control the House. The results could particularly weaken the dollar further, allowing US stocks to breathe a bullish air after the markets open today. In parallel, Bitcoin – a 24/7 open market – is already showing signs of a strong bullish bias in near-term.

BTC/USD Technical Analysis

PRESENT DAY CHART | SOURCE: TRADINGVIEW.COM

The previous resistance at 6421-fiat is now taking up the role of a support after the BTC/USD rally. The pair is hinting a small bearish correction already, with its RSI and Stochastic Oscillator situated around the overbought area. The volume nevertheless has dipped as of now, meaning the new few hours could exhibit a stable price action before a downside correction attempt.

The BTC/USD pair is already trending inside a near-term rising wedge that is usually considered bearish for the same timeframe. The pair, now testing the upper trendline, should reverse and bring the lower trendline in view of the correction. That certainly is a decent short opportunity for day traders. Both the trendlines are almost parallel, so the price should start losing volume as they begin to converge. It could be the foremost signal of a breakdown scenario below the lower trendline. That also indicates that rallies taking place inside the rising wedge will prove to meaningless unless a sharp breakout above the upper trendline changes the technical dynamics overall.

BTC/USD Intraday Analysis

Our intraday analysis enables us to make profits regardless of the direction of the Bitcoin price action. The range we are watching today has 6513-fiat serving as interim resistance and 6421-fiat serving as interim support. The range is wide enough to apply our intrarange strategy. Therefore, a pullback from resistance enables a short position towards support and a retracement from support enables a long position towards resistance. It’s that simple.

Nevertheless, the real profits lie in the breakout targets. As we are already near the resistance level, a weak US dollar is allowing us to enter a long position towards 6640-fiat, our next upside target. Meanwhile, we are also maintaining a stop loss order just 3-pips below the entry point to exit the market on a small loss, in the event of a pullback action.

Looking towards the south, a break below 6421-fiat will have us enter a short position towards 6372-fiat, the bottom of the November 5 trading session. In this position, maintaining a stop loss order just 4-pips above the entry point would ensure that our risks stay lesser.

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Bitcoin Analysis

Crypto Market May be Poised for Bullish Breakout



bitcoin bull



Bitcoin on Tuesday confirmed another bull flag formation after reversing from its downside correction action.

The BTC/USD pair has almost negated the losses made during yesterday’s trading session, bringing the 24-hour gains to 0.46 percent. The pair found a strong intraday support level at 6372-fiat, just ahead of testing the lower trendline of the parallel channel introduced in the previous analysis. It reversed from the said level to retest its interim resistance at 6421-fiat. The BTC/USD pair is now trading at 6427-fiat on a comparatively high volume day. Coupled with the bull flag formation, it is also signaling further upside action as the US session comes into play.

SOURCE: TRADINGVIEW.COM

The hourly signals are turning more bullish as BTC/USD continues to trend above its 100- and 200-period simple moving averages. At the same time, the RSI is also reversing to the north from its current neutral area, hinting a possibility of a strong push towards the overbought region. The Stochastic Oscillator movements are also biased towards the north, moving right towards the area defined by strong buying sentiment.

The upside bias nevertheless remains capped by a medium-term descending trendline depicted in blue. A break above it could bring BTC/USD inside a bull trap. But, an extended momentum that takes the pair above 6810-fiat could confirm a medium-term upside sentiment in the market.

BTC/USD Intraday Analysis

Our focus is likely to remain on our intraday positions, to take out the maximum profits regardless of the direction of the BTC/USD price action. So, without further ado, let’s have a look.

SOURCE: TRADINGVIEW.COM

Our intraday positions from yesterday have allowed us to exit our long position towards 6421-fiat on a decent profit. As we now gear up for another day of trading, the levels we are watching stand slightly modified. A break above 6421-fiat has allowed us to find an ideal long target at 6450-fiat instead while keeping 6472-fiat in view. A stop-loss order at 6515-fiat is defining our risk management perspective on these long positions.

A breakout action above 6421-fiat only puts BTC/USD in a bull trap, meaning the pair could attempt a strong reversal nevertheless. So a sign of reversal coupled with an increase in volume could have us open a short position towards the lower trendline of the parallel channel formation while eyeing 6329-fiat as a potential downside target. In both these positions, maintaining a stop loss order just 5-pips above the entry point will minimize our losses.

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Bitcoin Analysis

Bitcoin Futures Volatility Hit Record Low in October: CBOE



bitcoin stability



Bitcoin has been unusually stable in recent weeks, and the decrease in volatility has now reached historic levels in the futures markets.

Bitcoin Volatility Hits Record Level in Futures Markets

That’s according to Kevin Davitt, senior instructor for The Options Institute at CBOE Global Markets, who said that Chicago-based derivatives exchange saws record low volatility in its bitcoin futures market during the month of October.

Speaking on the subject during CBOE’s latest weekly bitcoin futures roundup, he said:

“Last week, which ended on October 26, saw the least volatility yet with a 3 percent weekly high-to-low range,” he said, “if we look at the weekly range over the course of October, it’s a mere 6.6 percent, which is far and away the lowest monthly average.”

CBOE’s XBT futures product had seen an average weekly volatility of 15.65 percent since their launch in Dec. 2017, more than double what the market saw in October. Remarkably, even bitcoin’s most volatile week during October saw a lead-month range of just 8 percent.

bitcoin futures price chart cboe
XBT/USD | CBOE | Source: TradingView

“The high settle was 6630, and the low settle was 6105. That move occurred in the second week of the month of October, between the 8th highs and the lows on October 11,” he said. “That works out to a lead-month range for the calendar month of less than 8 percent.”

Previously, Davitt had noted in his regular futures analysis that bitcoin’s 20-day historical volatility (HV) had become comparable to some of Wall Street’s most liquid stocks. At the time, bitcoin’s 20-day HV was below those of Amazon, Netflix, and Nvidia, and it was quickly approaching the HV of Apple, the world’s most valuable company.

Reflecting on this phenomenon, Davitt said, “Anyway you carve it, bitcoin volatility is relatively low and has been declining.”

Crypto Prices are Stable, But is That a Good Thing?

bitcoin futures volatility CBOE
Source: CBOE

However, analysts disagree about whether the crypto market’s newfound stability is a positive sign. Tom Lee, one of Wall Street’s earliest and most well-known crypto advocates, said that he has been “pleasantly surprised” by how stable bitcoin has proven to be relative to the choppy equities markets.

BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes, on the other hand, argued in recent market commentary that bitcoin would never see mainstream adoption unless volatility ramps back up.

“Contrary to popular belief, Bitcoin requires volatility if it is ever to gain mainstream adoption. The price of Bitcoin is the best and most transparent way to communicate the health of the ecosystem,” he wrote. “It advertises to the world that something is happening–whether that is positive or negative is irrelevant.”

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Bitcoin Analysis

Bitcoin Price Broaches New Weekly High But Slips into Bearish Correction



bitcoin price bearish correction



On Monday, bitcoin underwent a bearish correction after establishing a new weekly high at 6440-fiat, falling close to 0.8 percent.

Bitcoin Hits Weekly High

The BTC/USD pair is trading in a bull trend above the 200-period simple moving average on hourly charts. The big move yesterday seems to have appeared more because of Tether, whose USDT token lost its dollar-peg once again, and its holders started jumping towards other coins. Prior to that, the BTC/USD pair was already pursuing a stable uptrend on near-term charts, albeit with low volume.

SOURCE: COINBASE, TRADINGVIEW.COM

The correction taking place at this moment also signifies the formation of yet another bull flag. In a traditional scenario, such a pattern could lead to a breakout action towards the north. That said, the current pullback action could put BTC/USD towards the lower trendline of the parallel channel formation, seeking a strong bounce back above the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement level at 6421-fiat.

The RSI momentum indicator, meanwhile, is also hinting a dip into the strong selling area, mirroring the extended bearish correction prediction towards the lower dotted trendline. The Stochastic Oscillator is already inside the bearish region and is hinting a bounce back anytime soon.

On a 4H timeframe, the uptrend is still capped by a blue descending trendline — adjusted according to recent higher highs. The BTC/USD pair is trading in a bear trend below the 200-period simple moving average. A break above the blue trendline coupled with an increasing volume index rate could form a medium-term bullish sentiment, but an actual long-term upside bias will have to wait until the BTC/USD pair reclaims 7000-fiat.

BTC/USD Intraday Analysis: Bull Flag Expected?

According to our intraday strategy, we are pretty much watching the same range we defined in our previous analysis. That said, 6421-fiat is still serving as our interim resistance while the interim support is at 6329-fiat. The range is pretty wide to apply our intrarange strategy, so we are first waiting for the price to break below the lower red dotted trendline, and clear our short position towards 6329-fiat. As we enter this position, a stop loss order just 4-pips above the entry point will define our risk management perspective.

If we are indeed watching a bull flag formation, then a bounce back from the lower red dotted trendline should have us put a long position towards 6421-fiat, while sighting 6500-fiat as our breakout position target. In both the positions, maintaining a stop loss order just 4-pips below the entry point will minimize our losses in case there comes a bias reversal scenario.

Trade safely!

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Bitcoin Analysis

Bitcoin Cash Volume Surges 7x to $1.4 Billion, Crypto Market Recovering





Major cryptocurrencies including Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, and Litecoin have increased by more than 5 percent in value over the last 24 hours.

The cryptocurrency market has started to demonstrate signs of recovery, as the daily trading volume of large digital asset trading platforms has increased over the past week.

The volume of Bitcoin, led by an abrupt surge in volume in the cryptocurrency exchange market of South Korea and the BTC-to-KRW trading pair, increased from $3.1 billion to $4.4 billion within a span of seven days, increasing by 44 percent.

Bitcoin Cash Sees 7x Increase in Volume

Bitcoin recorded a mere 1 percent increase in its price and a minor price movement was expected, given that BTC has demonstrated its highest level of stability in recent years throughout the past three months.

For BTC to demonstrate a 5 to 10 percent in value in the current phase of the market, a major catalyst or a driving factor will be required.

BTC is set to face some key resistance levels above the $6,400 mark and to confirm a positive short-term movement, it will have to demonstrate a strong movement above the $6,500 mark with decent supporting volume.

While BTC has maintained a sideways market, other major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Bitcoin Cash have increased significantly in value over the last 24 hours.

Bitcoin Cash in specific has seen an increase of seven-fold in volume from less than $200 million to $1.4 billion. BCH has surpassed the peak volume Ripple (XRP) achieved in early October when its price tripled.

Ethereum, which also has demonstrated stagnant performance throughout October, recorded a decent gain of 4 percent to $208, successfully breaking out of the $200 resistance level.

But, according to cryptocurrency technical analyst Josh Rager, Bitcoin could portray increasing volatility in the short-term but a sideways movement throughout November is a possibility.

“Historically, we haven’t seen Bollinger Bands squeeze this tight over the past two years. This means upcoming volatility with price action. But, we saw the same squeeze in 2016 which lasted a month, be prepared for possible slow sideways movement through November.”

Digital asset trader Hsaka echoed a similar sentiment, expecting a difficult breakout for BTC above the $6,800 mark in the upcoming weeks.

“To be honest, with volume and volatility petering out, I wouldn’t be surprised to see BTC hold this range for another month (and maybe till the EOY too). Would be the path of maximum pain, bears don’t get their rapid selloff to 4.8k, bulls distraught over not being able to break 6.8k.”

Where is Market Heading?

An increase in volume of BTC in both South Korea and Japan, two of the largest cryptocurrency exchange markets, could lead to a solid short-term movement for many major digital assets.

But, until BTC breaks out of its tight range and tests $6,800, it will be difficult to confirm a short-term rally of any significance.

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Bitcoin Analysis

‘Tis the Season — to Evaluate Bitcoin’s Price Performance





By Rafael Delfin, Head of Research at Brave New Coin, a leading provider of high-value cryptocurrency market data and insights, since 2012.

October 31st, 2018 marked the 10-year anniversary of the publication of Bitcoin’s white paper. While it was initially circulated among a small and obscure cryptography mailing list, one decade later, the implementation of the mythical white paper is disrupting the world’s notion of money, sovereignty, and everything in between.

Since its inception, bitcoin’s performance has been nothing short of extraordinary. With its highly volatile nature, it has seen a price crash of 70% from $19K USD to $6K USD in 2018. However, it has also seen a significant price increase since 2011. Since then, bitcoin’s price and market capitalization grew by 100 fold during late 2017.

bitcoin price chart
BTC/USD | Coinbase

Bitcoin’s public perception has evolved from an obscure proof-of-concept of electronic cash during its early days, to an anonymous currency used in the dark web to pay for illegal goods, to a censorship-resistant store of value and uncorrelated financial asset, now that forward-thinking investors have become more familiarised and comfortable with crypto assets.

Along the way, the crypto asset has also overcome paralyzing conflict. The most prominent being a year-long, contentious scaling debate that culminated in mid-2017. It was during this time that the Bitcoin Cash project forked off Bitcoin, championing cheap P2P payments through an increase in block size. Fortunately, one month later, Bitcoin saw the activation of Segregated Witness. This not only removed a transaction malleability bug and translated in significantly cheaper and faster transactions but also allowed for future additional scaling projects to be implemented on the network.

The Lightning Network, which went live during Q1 of 2018, allowing for near-instant transactions, is one example of such additional scaling projects. A second scaling project that still a work in progress is MAST, short for Merkelized Abstract Syntax Trees, which will allow for even smaller transaction fees, as well as increased privacy and smart contract capabilities. Leaving bitcoin’s price aside, 2018 has been one of its best years, not only in terms of technological advancements, but also in terms of regulatory engagement, institutional involvement, and investment in market infrastructure.

Across the world, regulatory agencies and industry stakeholders are now launching self-regulated industry organisations (SROs) that aim to bring about market transparency and the regulatory safeguards required to drive the next adoption stage in the ecosystem. Examples of such SROs include the Virtual Commodities Association, in the U.S. and the Japanese Cryptocurrency Business Association. These are some of the largest markets for the crypto ecosystem.

wall street bitcoin

At the same time, 2018 has seen the crypto industry mature significantly through the expansion of compliant product and service offerings in key jurisdictions. For example, the launch of crypto custody solutions for institutional investors by BitGo in the U.S., and Japan’s Nomura Bank. Also worth noting is the incursion of established players in the space, for example Goldman Sachs’ backing of Circle, Fidelity’s Digital Asset Services subsidiary for institutional crypto asset custody and trade execution, and the launch of Bitcoin futures platform Bakkt by Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).

Given these exciting developments, it is expected that 2019 will see the steady growth of Bitcoin and the crypto ecosystem towards worldwide, mainstream adoption, along with the tokenization of value across industries. Both financial, such as low-cost remittances and tokenized securities, as well as non-financial use cases, such as public land title registries and identity solutions, have been in development for years now, and 2019 will be the year when a number of blockchain-based killer apps are finally launched to the public.

There is a big test for bitcoin and the crypto ecosystem looming over the horizon. As traditional financial markets began to tumble after their recovery from the 2008-2009 financial crisis, one of the most attractive investment features of crypto assets will be put to the test. That is, whether they represent an uncorrelated asset class to traditional financial assets, and if they can serve as a counter-cyclical hedge during times of financial turbulence.

I am confident the entire asset class will revisit previous all-time-high price levels. However, no one knows when will this happen. In the meantime, on the professional side, I will focus on building tools and infrastructure for the crypto industry. From a personal perspective, I will learn from history, peers, and past mistakes, in order to be well-positioned for the next rollercoaster ride.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in the article are solely those of the author and do not represent those of, nor should they be attributed to, CCN.

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Bitcoin Analysis

Bakkt to Lead Bitcoin Recovery, Feb 2019 ETF Denial Crashes BTC: Analyst





Alex Krüger, a well-recognized cryptocurrency trader and technical analyst, has said Bakkt will lead the recovery of Bitcoin throughout 2018 and the first quarter of 2019.

But, Krüger explained that the rejection of the Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) filing of VanEck, SolidX, and Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) will lead to the crash of Bitcoin, possibly back down to the $6,000 support level and in worst case scenario, to the $4,000 region.

“Possible outlook for BTC: First, bull run on BAAKT & renewed ETF approval narrative early 2019. Second, ETF denied Feb/27, massive crash, goodbye 6k, hello 4k, cleanse all weak hands Lastly, halvening 2020 narrative and re-adjustments lead to sustained bull run for the rest of 2019 & 2020.”

Optimism Towards Bakkt and Faith of the VanEck-SolidX ETF

Bakkt, a strictly regulated cryptocurrency trading platform developed by ICE, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), is currently in the process of establishing an ecosystem that enables both retail traders and institutional investors to invest in the cryptocurrency market with sufficient investor protection and through products that are compliant with local regulations in the US.

In December, Bakkt is expected to launch a cryptocurrency futures market, further increasing the liquidity of Bitcoin. Previously, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) rejected nine Bitcoin ETFs on the premise that the Bitcoin futures market is not of sufficient size to handle an ETF.

The entrance of Bakkt into the cryptocurrency exchange market, the involvement of Bitcoin futures market operator CBOE in the VanEck ETF, and the track record of VanEck in filing over 200 successful ETFs with the SEC have led to an increase in anticipation towards the VanEck-SolidX ETF.

Throughout the next two to three months, technical analyst Alex Krüger emphasized that renewed enthusiasm towards the market initiated by Bakkt and the VanEck ETF will allow the price of Bitcoin to climb back to major resistance levels.

Since August, Bitcoin has failed to breakout of the $6,000 region due to its low daily trading volume and relatively low trading activity in the global cryptocurrency exchange market.

Hence, as of now, the market needs a major catalyst to engage a proper short-term rally and upside movement, and the two financial institutions could be a major factor that may trigger the price of Bitcoin to increase.

However, speaking to CCN, Krüger firmly stated that the probability of the VanEck-SolidX Bitcoin ETF being approved remains extremely low given the concerns of the SEC towards the state of the cryptocurrency exchange market.

If Bakkt can begin to demonstrate a level of volume that comfortably trump the volume of cryptocurrency exchanges that offer derivatives or margin trading such as Bitmex and Bitfinex, the SEC could consider approving an ETF. The issue with that is, the probability of Bakkt surpassing the volume of existing cryptocurrency exchanges within a two-month span is fairly low.

Is it Possible ETF Rejection Doesn’t Hurt Bitcoin Price?

The launch of Bakkt, the introduction of Goldman Sachs Bitcoin futures trading platform, and the release of Fidelity Digital Assets have not had any impact on the price of the dominant cryptocurrency in the past few months.

The possibility that the rejection of the ETF does not hugely affect the price of BTC still exists. But, that depends on the narrative that is set by investors and the media in the upcoming months and the anticipation towards the ETF.

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Bitcoin Analysis

Bitcoin Bear Market Could Last 18 More Months: BitMEX CEO



bitcoin bear market


Bitcoin prices and trading volume might keep plummeting, and the current bear market could last another 18 months. That’s the sobering assessment of Arthur Hayes, the CEO of the Bitcoin Mercantile Exchange (BitMEX), the world’s largest bitcoin derivatives trading platform.

“My view is the volatility environment that exists right now could persist for another 12 to 18 months, the flatness,” Hayes told Yahoo Finance. “I’m just basing it off my previous experience.”

Hayes started trading crypto full-time in 2013 after losing his job as an equities trader at Citibank. The Hong Kong-based executive said the trading patterns today resemble the “nuclear bear market” he witnessed in 2014.

“I started in bitcoin in 2013, when the price went from $250 to $1,300,” Hayes recounted. “And then 2014 to 2015 was sort of the nuclear bear market. Price crashed, volume crashed — very, very difficult to make money.”

Hayes Set $50,000 BTC Price Target in June

Cryptocurrency trading volumes recently plunged to a new year low following the summer slump.

Hayes said volume could drop more in the coming months. “We think trading volumes could fall further from where they are now,” he said.

This is a stunning about-face from the exuberant $50,000 year-end bitcoin price target Hayes set back in June 2018.

At the time, he said BTC prices were just one positive regulatory decision away from rocketing past $20,000 on its way to $50,000 by December 2018. That does not appear realistic given current market conditions.

While Arthur Hayes has a bearish near-term outlook on the crypto market, he’s bullish about the industry’s long-term prospects.

Other market participants agree that the industry is currently flailing, but the long-term outlook is very bullish.

“The market is blowing off some steam right now,” Will Warren, the co-founder of decentralized crypto exchange 0x, told Yahoo. “The market is probably going through some healthy consolidation, but I do believe the long-term trend will be greater adoption of bitcoin and similar technologies.”

Experts: Slump is Temporary

bitcoin price
BTC/USD | Coinbase

Jonathan Levi, the CEO of blockchain startup Hacera, agreed. “The price of bitcoin is undoubtedly in a bear market, but in the application of bitcoin and other blockchain projects we are in fact in a bull market,” Levi said. “Most of the EU banks are actively investing in blockchain, and that all originally stems from bitcoin.”

While many in the crypto community are in panic mode over the market’s current downswing, cryptocurrency evangelists who have followed the market since its inception are not worried over short-term blips.

Tech entrepreneur Wences Casares, the founder of bitcoin wallet provider Xapo, said it could take decades to know for sure if bitcoin is successful.

Casares said it’s possible that crypto might fail, but that’s unlikely, as CCN has reported. “At this point, the chances of success are better than the chances of failure,” he said.

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Bitcoin Analysis

Bitcoin Bull Tom Lee ‘Pleasantly Surprised’ by Drop in Crypto Volatility



tom lee


Over the past several weeks, the bitcoin price has been uncharacteristically stable, even as equities have lost their footing and the global stock market has flirted with corrective territory.

Tom Lee, the founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors and one of Wall Street’s most well-known bitcoin bulls, said that he was pleasantly surprised by the drop in crypto volatility, particularly when juxtaposed with the stock market’s recent swings.

He told CNBC:

“It’s surprising given how small bitcoin is in terms of market cap. The total crypto market cap is $200 billion, on close to $90 trillion of global assets that have actually seen a correction…so I’m pleasantly surprised.”

That stability has come in the face of significant headwinds, not just from general trends in equities markets but also from a strengthening US dollar, which affects crypto since prices are still predominantly denominated in USD.

bitcoin price
BTC/USD | Coinbase

Lee, who had at one point predicted that the bitcoin price could crack $25,000 this year, said that BTC appears to have found a floor at $6,000, as it has tested that mark several times throughout the year and ultimately held above it.

The market has yet to see the level of fiat inflows necessary to jolt the flagship cryptocurrency out of its 10-month long rut, but Lee believes that could change — potentially even before the end of the year — as major financial industry players such as Bakkt, Fidelity, and ErisX begin to roll out crypto services for institutional investors.

Cryptocurrency prices could also benefit from improved conditions in equities and currency markets. One thing to watch for is increased stability in emerging markets, which have been highly volatile and, according to Lee, “severely oversold.” Another factor that would bolster bitcoin’s prospects would be a reversal in USD’s strengthening trendline. These improved conditions, along with institutional inflows, should be sufficient to catalyze the foundations of the next crypto market rally.

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Bitcoin Analysis

BCH and EOS Extend Losses to 5% as Bitcoin Drops to $6,250



Bitcoin price

Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has lost 2 percent of its price against the US dollar, dipping below the $6,300 mark to $6,250.

While cryptocurrency-only exchanges are demonstrating a price of $6,350 for Bitcoin due to the premium on BTC-to-USDT (Tether) pair, the actual price of Bitcoin remains at around $6,256.

The volume of BTC has increased from $3.1 billion to $4.2 billion over the past seven days, by more than 35 percent. But, most of the volume recorded by major cryptocurrency exchanges represent sell orders.

Major Digital Assets and Tokens Take a Hit

As the price of Bitcoin fell below the $6,300 mark for the first time since October 15, the value of major digital assets including Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and EOS fell by more than 5 percent along with small market cap tokens.

Several cryptocurrency traders and technical analysts stated that the abrupt dip in the price of BTC was still a minor movement above major support levels and as such, it is still too early to confirm a bearish short-term trend.

“BTC dipped into a demand area. Absolutely nothing to worry about right now. Still focused on alts and using this opportunity to buy the dip,” AwaitingMonk said.

Andy Chung, the head of operations at OKEx, the third largest cryptocurrency exchange in the global market, emphasized that historically, Bitcoin has tended to dip in value and show a noticeable drop in volume prior to a large short-term rally.

In the weeks to come, before the end of 2018, Chung stated that the stability of BTC for nearly a year could lead to a positive movement on the upside.

“It’s always quiet before a good storm. The market has been calm for almost a year, we can expect something good to happen soon to Bitcoin.”

In September, the volume of Ripple was around $1.8 billion. Since then, the daily trading volume of Ripple has fallen to around $300 million, while the volume of BCH fell below the $300 million mark.

In comparison to the volume of Ethereum (ETH) at around $1.5 billion, trading activity of XRP and BCH investors remain significantly low relative to other major digital assets.

In the short-term, due to the lack of volume, BCH and XRP are more vulnerable to sell-pressure and a dip below important support levels than Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Can Bitcoin Speedily Recover?

Previously, analysts stated that if Bitcoin dips before the end of October, a speedy recovery will be possible as long as BTC does not fall below the $6,000 support level. If BTC can sustain its volume above the $6,200 region, then a short-term corrective rally will be possible.

But, if BTC falls to the low $6,000 region affected by the poor performance of major cryptocurrencies and other tokens, then a further drop to the $6,000 to $6,100 can be expected.

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Bitcoin Analysis

Bitcoin Price Intraday Analysis: BTC/USD Breaks Stability, Falls



bitcoin price stability streak snapped

The downside pressure renewed in the bitcoin market after two weeks of firm action.

The bitcoin-to-dollar exchange rate on Monday dropped by more than 3 percent, breaking below the critical support level near 6300-fiat. The pair formed intraday lows on a downtrend towards 6212-fiat, only to find a weak bullish sentiment. The price has corrected ever since and is showing signs of weak sideways consolidation. A pennant formation is likely at this moment before BTC/USD continues to its downward action.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) looks bullish at the beginning of Monday’s intraday session. It is set to test highs in the 96.70-region following a weak political scenario in Germany. The country’s chancellor, Angela Merkel, will not renew her position in the next election, which visibly had a role in the Euro’s weak performance against the greenback.

The dismissal performance of the stock market has further intensified the dollar’s credibility as the most substantial asset around. For what it may seem, bitcoin is only a candidate for this ongoing turbulence.

BTC/USD Technical Analysis

The BTC/USD pair is trading at 6265-fiat upon the upside correction action. The near-term triangle formation stands invalid after the breakdown action. The next moves are taking place in what may seem like a short-term bear trap. The continuity in the downward movement would target 6131-fiat as the next critical support level, owing to its ability to have sustained downsides a couple of times since early September.

Technical indicators have turned from neutral to bearish on four-hour timeframes. BTC/USD is trading much lower than it’s 100 and 200-hour simple moving averages. The momentum indicator RSI has dived inside the oversold region, awaiting comeback. And, the Stochastic Oscillators are also heading below 40, a selling area. Overall, the market is very bearish in near-term.

BTC/USD Intraday Analysis

We are watching a new range today, defined by 6212-fiat as our newfound interim support, and 6384-fiat as our new interim resistance. We are initially looking for a weak sideways consolidation which would not yield any decent intraday opportunities for us. More likely, we will intellectually remain in a short position mood towards 6212-fiat. A rise in volume, thus, would open our first position likewise: a short towards 6212-fiat while maintaining a stop loss target just 3-pips above the entry point.

Any upside action combined with raise in volatility would mean a similar response but to the upside targets. That said, a highly volumed move towards the interim resistance at 6384-fiat would have us open a long position towards the same, while a stop loss just 2-pips below the entry level would define our risks.

Trade safely!

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Bitcoin Analysis

Bitcoin Doesn’t Move as Market Continues Stability, Volume Rises 20%



bitcoin price

Over the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market has demonstrated the same trend it has shown throughout the past 12 days, with Bitcoin at $6,400.

The volume of Bitcoin has increased by nearly 20 percent from $3.1 billion to $3.5 billion, hinting a rise in trading activity in the cryptocurrency exchange market across major digital asset trading platforms.

The sudden rise in the volume of Bitcoin, which has been stagnant since mid-October, could lead to a potential short-term positive movement on the upside in the days to come.

Is Bitcoin Ready to Climb?

Various technical indicators of BTC suggest that the dominant cryptocurrency is building momentum to breakout of several minor resistance levels in the high $6,000 region.

Cryptocurrency trader and technical analyst Uzi stated that if BTC can surpass the $6,400 mark with ease, then it is possible for the asset to eye a breakout above the $6,500 mark.

“BTC looks ready to break out of the bull pennant on the 4H, price closed above the 50 & 20 day EMA today and MACD is bullish now, resistance is looking like 6417-6420 here, lets see if we can break it soon.”

The volume of BTC increased subsequent to the closure of a daily candle with lowest recorded volume in the past 10 months. During the weekend, the volume of the cryptocurrency exchange market tends to dip, alongside over-the-counter (OTC) markets that are said to process three times the daily trading volume of major cryptocurrency exchanges.

Hence, the rise in the volume of BTC on a Saturday is a positive indicator for the short-term trend of the asset. If the momentum of BTC above the $6,400 can be sustained throughout Sunday and continues on next week, the positive sentiment around the market will likely allow large market cap cryptocurrencies to rise in value.

Throughout the past week, in a sideways market, small tokens recorded decent gains against Bitcoin in the range of 5 to 10 percent. However, major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, and Bitcoin Cash have not been able to demonstrate signs of recovery.

Von, another recognized crypto analyst, said that BTC is expected to hold $6,400 comfortably in the next 12 to 24 hours.

“BTC having a calm Sunday while kindly closing that Tether premium for us, currently $80 USD price very stable and Tether prices look likely to meet imminently I would expect $6,400 to hold and provide good territory for bounce, breaking that trés bearish.”

Still Conditional

While the trading activity in the cryptocurrency exchange market increased over the past two days, the majority of traders are still waiting out for the market to demonstrate a major movement.

A potential increase in the price of Bitcoin to the $6,500 to $6,600 range is dependent on the ability of the market to sustain decent volume and momentum in the upcoming days.

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Bitcoin Analysis

if Crypto “Remains” Illegal, Adoption Will be Difficult



At Bloomberg Ideas, an event that features leading experts in various industries, George Mason University economics professor Tyler Cowen stated that if crypto remains illegal, adoption will be difficult to achieve.

“If crypto stays illegal, it will be ghettoized, and that will make it harder for it to spread ultimately.”

However, in major markets including the US, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Switzerland, and the UK, the usage and trading of cryptocurrencies are legal, with sufficient regulatory frameworks in place to protect investors in the global digital asset exchange market.

Already Regulated

According to Cowen, regulation around cryptocurrencies as an emerging asset class has to be solidified further to attract more investors into the market and encourage merchants to adopt cryptocurrencies as an alternative payment method to fiat currencies.

For years, economists have mischaracterized cryptocurrencies as criminal money, an unregulated asset class, and an inefficient payment system, as seen in the recent outburst of widely recognized economist Nouriel Roubini.

The negative stance towards cryptocurrencies portrayed by the majority of leading economists has been expected by the cryptocurrency industry. As decentralized financial networks, consensus currencies challenge the fundamental belief of economists that fiat currencies serve as the base monetary system of the global economy.

But, it is of utmost importance, at least for companies that provide services in the finance sector, to consider the possibility of digital assets potentially competing against fiat currencies in the long-term due the declining trust towards middlemen and financial institutions by millennials.

As former Goldman sachs CEO and chairman Lloyd Blankfein emphasized, who previously stated that it is “arrogant” for economists and bankers to think crypto has no future, there exists a chance that cryptocurrencies could arise and evolve into a major asset class in the years to come.

“If you go through that fiat currency where they say this is worth what it’s worth because I, the government, says it is, why couldn’t you have a consensus currency?”

Hence, while the skepticism towards malpractices and poor protocols utilized by some cryptocurrencies in the global market is encouraged, intentionally mischaracterizing the asset class as an “illegal” payment method and currency is highly inappropriate and more importantly, inaccurate.

The Japanese government has recently allowed 21 cryptocurrency exchanges to form a consortium and self-regulate the local digital asset exchange market, with a national licensing program in place to oversee businesses in the industry.

The government of South Korea officially recognized the cryptocurrency market as a legitimate industry, acknowledging the blockchain as a core technology in the fourth industrial revolution. Gopax, a leading exchange in the local market, is financed and operated by Shinhan, the 2nd largest commercial bank in the nation.

Crypto is Not Illegal

Based on the regulatory frameworks established in major regions, it is evident that cryptocurrency remains legal as a payment method, a remittance system, and as a currency. Even China, which implemented a blanket ban on cryptocurrency trading in September 2017, has recently recognized Bitcoin as a property under local regulations, allowing individuals and businesses to hold and send or receive cryptocurrencies legally.

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Bitcoin Analysis

BTC/USD Predictable amid Low Volume



Ethereum Wallet Transaction Scheduling

The Bitcoin-to-dollar exchange rate on Friday remained entrenched into the stable territory amid low volume.

The BTC/USD is currently trading at 6406-fiat, just 0.42 percent above its intraday low. The pair continues to bounce between a $58 wide range, providing day traders plenty of profitable opportunities to enter and exit the market on every pullback action. At the same time, the quoted US Dollar index (DXY) recently posted yearly highs at 96.62-fiat but retraced back to the nearby support level at 96.08. The reverse correlation between BTC and DXY continues to stay true.

Fundamentally, the stability is encouraging bulls into believing a steady uptrend in the future. The accumulation sentiment near the so-called bottom around 6000-fiat attests to it. Nevertheless, every extended sideways consolidation results into dramatic price actions in case of bitcoin. So, one shouldn’t be too bullish before breaking critical resistances to the upside.

BTC/USD Technical Analysis

The zoomed-out version of BTC/USD chart brings the pair back inside the symmetrical triangle formation. The upper trendline of the triangle has capped the BTC/USD upside on two recent occasions. And a bullish action from here could first attempt to break above the triangle pattern and form higher highs towards the 200-hour simple moving average. At least the RSI is pointing in the same direction. The momentum indicator looks geared up to pursue a smooth upside. The Stochastic Oscillator, at the same time, is trending sideways.

The daily sentiment is bullish; monthly, stable; and yearly, bearish.

BTC/USD Intraday Analysis

The intrarange action has given us decent profits on both our long and short positions. The levels discussed in the previous analysis stands correct even today, defined by 6450-fiat as interim resistance, 6392-fiat as intermediate support, and 6360-fiat as interim resistance.

So, once again, we are first placing a long position towards the interim resistance on a bounce back from support, while maintaining a stop loss order 3-pips below the entry position. Once we test the resistance target, we’ll wait for two possible outcomes: a breakout or a pullback. In a breakout scenario, we will open another long position, but this time towards 6473-fiat as our primary upside target. In this position, a stop loss order 3-pips below will define our risk management strategy.

During a pullback, we will open an as usual short position towards the intermediate support level while maintaining a stop loss order 2-pips above the entry point.

Near intermediate support, our focus will remain ripped between on a bounce back towards interim resistance and an extended downside action towards interim support.

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Bitcoin Analysis

Crypto Market to Eclipse $20 Trillion as Bitcoin Fades



cryptocurrency bitcoin ethereum ripple (XRP)

It’s been 10 years since bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto published his white paper on bitcoin, and the global economy hasn’t been the same since. The original cryptocurrency now boasts a market cap of more than $112 billion, while bitcoin’s dominance hovers at more than 53%.

But if you ask Nigel Green, founder and CEO of financial advisory firm deVere Group, which boasts $10 billion in AUM, the next 10 years will look a lot different than bitcoin’s first decade. He’s quick to attribute the “crypto revolution” to bitcoin, saying that it has changed the way money is transacted forever. Green’s outlook, however, is a mixed bag, with bitcoin’s “influence and dominance of the cryptocurrency sector” expected to “drastically reduce” while the value of the broader crypto market is poised to expand by 5,000%, which would attach a combined market cap of $20 trillion in the coming decade. Green stated in a press release:

“[While] I don’t wish to rain on anyone’s parade, I believe that Bitcoin’s influence and dominance of the cryptocurrency sector will drastically reduce in its second decade. This is because as mass adoption of cryptocurrency grows, more and more digital assets will be launched – by organizations in both the private and the public sectors. This will increase competition for Bitcoin and dent its market share.”

Ripple (XRP) and ETH to Steal Bitcoin’s Shine

ripple bitcoin ethereum cryptocurrency
Source: CoinMarketCap

Green, whose firm is based in Dubai but has offices around the world, pointed to other reasons for the forecast, such as better technology, features, and solutions to problems that competing cryptocurrencies will provide, coins like ripple (XRP) and ethereum. He told CCN:

“I believe that…XRP will be one of the main digital assets to dent Bitcoin’s market share over the next few years due to its apparent focus on integrating with banks and other financial institutions.”

XRP already muscled ETH out of the No. 2 spot for cryptocurrencies on CoinMarketCap more than once this year, though it has since fallen back to the No. 3 spot. Meanwhile, despite the fact that ETH has fallen out of favor with the crypto community of late, Green remains bullish on the future though he falls short of calling for a “flippening” event.

“Another one would be its current main challenger Ethereum.  This is because a growing number of platforms are adopting Ethereum as a means of trading; there’s an increasing use of smart contracts by Ethereum; and due to the decentralization of cloud computing.”

Even if bitcoin’s dominance fades, Green says there is a clear shift among retail and institutional investors away from fiat money and into crypto, one whose momentum will only intensify in the coming decade. As a result, he expects “the market will have grown beyond recognition when Bitcoin celebrates its 20th anniversary.”

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Bitcoin Analysis

Bitcoin Price Intraday Analysis: BTC/USD Retests Interim Resistance



bitcoin futures

The Bitcoin-to-dollar exchange rate on Wednesday traded at 6435-fiat after jumping 1.76 percent from the previous day’s low.

The pair is now reversing its upside action to extend the prevailing sideways bias. Selling pressure got renewed near the interim resistance level at 6450-fiat and BTC/USD gyrated above 6620-fiat as a result. The pair is now looking to the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s latest comments on VanEck and SolidX ETF for extended bullish movements. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index is losing momentum after establishing fresh tops at 96.50-fiat. The overall DXY sentiment, however, remains bullish that could reflect in Bitcoin and other dollar-enabled markets down the road.

BTC/USD Technical Analysis

The latest upside action has broken above the upper trendline of the near-term triangle formation. The strong fundamentals could excuse false breakout theories, bringing 6500-fiat in-sight as an achievable long target. The downside is now capped by three moving average indicators – 50H, 100H, and 200H – which could gyrate BTC/USD back towards the intraday high levels. RSI, the momentum indicator, is showing signs of reversal above 55, hinting traders could be accumulating more bitcoins on ETF fundamentals. A similar action could be seen in the Stochastic Oscillator graph, which is in a neutral area but with its head towards the north. For what it may seem, BTC/USD has established a bullish bias – though, near-term.

BTC/USD Intraday Analysis

We are on the verge of retesting our interim resistance level near 6450-fiat which, per our previous analysis, was our intrarange long target. We did manage to squeeze out a decent profit off our upside position, and our short towards the interim support at 6360-fiat is still open. However, with the fundamental dynamics changing, we believe we’ll have to bear a small loss should the pullback from resistance does not extend towards the support.

Our current intraday analysis, therefore, has an intermediate support level at 6392-fiat while we still keep 6360-fiat in sight. At the same time, a near-term ascending trendline is drawn to offer us hints of a potential near-term breakdown and downside caps.

That said, we are first waiting to put our breakout strategy in place. A break above resistance would have us open a long position towards 6495-fiat, our primary upside target. We’ll maintain a stop loss order just 3-pips below the entry level to minimize our risks.

A pullback from resistance would have us put a short towards 6392-fiat. A further break, and we’ll enter a similar position towards 6360-fiat. On both the shorts, a stop loss order just 2-pips above the entry position would define our risk management strategy.

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Bitcoin Analysis

Bitcoin Struggles at $6,380, BAT Falls 10% Despite Coinbase Interest



The Bitcoin price has fallen to the $6,300 region after failing to retain momentum in the $6,400 to $6,500 range.

The volume of the dominant cryptocurrency has experienced a minor recovery from $3.1 billion to $3.6 billion across major cryptocurrency exchanges. Yet, regardless of the settlement of seven consecutive weekly candles in the low $6,000 region, it is struggling to demonstrate any promising price movement on the upside.

Price Surge by the End of 2018 is Important

Yesterday, on October 22, CCN reported that due to the low trading activity in the Bitcoin exchange market, it will be challenging for the asset to initiate a short-term rally without the initiation of a sudden surge in price.

Months of stability often create a strong platform for an asset to engage in a strong upside movement but for BTC, its inability to comfortably breakout of a major resistance level at $6,800 since August 9 can be considered as a concerning indicator to traders in the market.

“If BTC can initiate a breakout above the $6,600 mark and potentially eye a move towards the $6,800 resistance level, then a bullish short-term trend can be confirmed. However, if it continues to show low volume and trading activity in the $6,300 to $6,500 range, it will be challenging for BTC to initiate a big spike,” the report read.

The failure of BTC to pass major resistance levels in the weeks to come could establish a dangerous precedent for the rest of the year. As cryptocurrency technical analyst who operates with the alias “Altcoin Thoreau” said, BTC could record a negative year-over-year performance for the first time in its history.

“One year ago October 21st 2017 was first time that $BTC went over $6000. If Bitcoin price stays in current range November 1st, 2018 will be the first time where Bitcoin’s price is negative on year over year basis.”

It is of utmost importance for the market to refrain from entering 2019 with negative sentiment, as it could extend the bear market throughout the first two quarters of next year.

With the launch of NYSE parent company ICE’s Bakkt Bitcoin futures market on the horizon, a recovery in the price of BTC is expected.

“ICE Futures U.S., Inc. will list the new Bakkt Bitcoin (USD) Daily Futures Contract for trading on Wednesday, December 12, 2018. The Bakkt Bitcoin (USD) Daily Futures Contract is a physically-settled daily futures contract for bitcoin held in Bakkt LLC, ICE’s Digital Asset Warehouse, and will be cleared by ICE Clear US, Inc,” ICE said.

BAT Struggles

In July, Coinbase disclosed its interest to list five digital assets including 0x, BAT, Zcash, Cardano, and Stellar.

The integration of 0x has led investors to speculate on the potential implementation of BAT, a token that is utilized as the native cryptocurrency of the Brave Browser.

However, due to the lackluster short-term price performance of BTC, the rest of the cryptocurrency market has struggled to demonstrate any positive signs of short-term rally.

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Bitcoin Analysis

Bitcoin Price Becoming Less Volatile than Amazon Stock: CBOE Analyst



bitcoin amazon

The next time your nocoiner friends or relatives criticize your decision to allocate a (hopefully reasonable) percentage of your investments into bitcoin, you can tell them that you’ve chosen to put money the flagship cryptocurrency because you don’t have the stomach for more volatile asset classes — stocks, for instance.

Granted, that argument doesn’t have a strong historical track record, but, according to an educational analyst at the first U.S. derivatives exchange to list bitcoin futures, BTC has lately experienced less price volatility than some of Wall Street’s most popular stocks, including tech heavyweights like Amazon, Netflix, and chipmaking giant Nvidia.

Writing in commentary cited in MarketWatch, CBOE Options Institute senior instructor Kevin Davitt stated that bitcoin’s 20-day historical volatility (HV) — i.e., the rate of change in its daily price — has dropped to 31.5 percent.

bitcoin futures price
BTC/USD | CME

By comparison, Amazon’s 20-day HV of 35 percent, Nvidia’s stands at 40 percent, and Netflix’s is nearly twice as large at 52 percent. At its current level, bitcoin is almost as stable as Apple (AAPL), the world’s most valuable company. Per the report, AAPL — whose market cap eclipses $1 trillion — has a 20-day HV of 29.3 percent.

Moreover, Davitt noted that even at its most volatile, the bitcoin price was far more stable than the share price of cannabis producer Tilray, the face of the pot stock bubble and an investment that short seller Citron Research called “more ridiculous than bitcoin.”

Davitt speculated that it’s possible the cryptocurrency market is maturing and that the drop in HV indicates a “structural shift” in the ecosystem. However, he cautioned that it’s “far too early” to conclude that this is the “new normal.”

“Perhaps we are witnessing the maturation of a market. It’s far too early to declare this the ‘new normal’ but the persistent range over the last few weeks may be hinting at a structural shift. Time will tell,” he wrote.

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Bitcoin Analysis

US Recession by 2020 Has 60% Chance, is Crypto an Alternative?



$362 billion banking giant JPMorgan Chase has predicted a 60 percent chance for the next US recession to occur by 2020. In a global market crash, can crypto be a viable alternative to existing stores of value?

“The probability of a U.S. recession within one year is almost 28 percent, and rises to more than 60 percent over the next two years, researchers wrote in a note this week. Over the next three years, the odds are higher than 80 percent, according to the note,” Bloomberg reported.

Why Experts Predict a Market Crash

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, there exists a mere 14.5 percent chance of a recession occurring by the end of 2019, which is a stark difference from that of JPMorgan’s 60 percent chance by 2020.

The difference comes from the intricate model of JPMorgan that tracks virtually every indicator that could contribute to the global economy. Some of the indicators include compensation growth, consumer and business sentiment, and labor participation.

Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont, suggested that 2020 could be considered as a premature period for the next US recession to occur but he echoed a similar sentiment to JPMorgan in that while the US economy remains strong with low unemployment rate and a bull market, the risk of a recession in the years to come exists.

Generally, the majority of economists in the US forecast a recession to occur in the next two to three years. David Altig, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta research director and NABE’s survey chair, disclosed that two thirds of business economists in the US expect the market to crash by the end of 2020, mostly due to trade issues.

“Trade issues are clearly influencing panelists’ views,” Altig said, stating that trade issues and high interest rates imposed by the Fed leave US markets vulnerable to a mid-term crash.

Is Crypto an Alternative?

During a period in which many economists forecast a market crash and a major recession in the next two years, the demand for crypto has increased rapidly.

While not portrayed by the prices of major cryptocurrencies, financial institutions such as Fidelity, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup have established infrastructure to target institutional investors planning to invest in the digital asset market.

Banks and investment firms have prevented from establishing businesses in the cryptocurrency sector due to the lack of regulatory certainty in the market. Experts have stated that the abruptly emerging trend of major financial institutions entering the crypto market suggests the demand for crypto from investors in the traditional finance sector has increased rapidly in the past several months.

As Jim Hamel, portfolio manager at Artisan Global Opportunities Fund explained, the digital payments industry has experienced exponential growth in recent years, which could naturally lead investors to cryptocurrencies.

“There are a number of tailwinds contributing to this trend. First, we’re seeing rapid growth in e-commerce, which requires that customers be able to make secure digital payments. The growth in cross-border transactions and the general impact of an increasingly globalized marketplace are helping accelerate this trend.”

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Bitcoin Analysis

Bitcoin Network Congestion Reaches 95%, But Fees Hold Steady



bitcoin network congestion

Popular cryptocurrency analyst Willy Woo has observed what many others in the community have overlooked. While this year’s market downturn has shaved off approximately 70% of BTC’s value, the Bitcoin network is quietly gaining scale. It’s a sign of what many blockchain pioneers have been touting during the market downdraft, which is for developers to keep their heads down working without being distracted by the noise that’s surrounding cryptocurrency prices.

Congestion on the Bitcoin network reached 95% last week, but if you were transacting in BTC, you wouldn’t have experienced an uptick in transaction fees, which remain at approximately $0.1 — even for transactions as large as $194 million. Woo tweeted a comparison of the 2017 congestion of up to 85% versus 2018 peak congestion of 95%, illustrating that despite the higher congestion today fees remain “nominal” and below year-ago levels.

He said:

“Meanwhile… during the bear market no less… Bitcoin’s blocks peak above 95% full without anyone noticing, the fees and confirm times remain nominal. Bitcoin of 2018 is not Bitcoin of 2017. The protocol is quietly improving.”

Source: Willy Woo on Twitter

The data appears to be based on the 1MB ceiling, though Woo later updated the chart to reflect “witness blocks in the picture.”

Source: Willy Woo on Twitter

According to the Blockchain Council, a 1MB block is equivalent to approximately 2,000 transactions, though the average number of transactions per block is reportedly below that. The adoption of SegWit, which has a 4 million unit block weight ceiling, has expanded the capacity for blocks.

The Bitcoin blockchain has the capacity to perform approximately 7 transactions per second (TPS), which is a far cry from the tens of thousands of TPS that the Visa network can handle. But, as Andreessen Horowitz General Partner Katie Haun recently explained in recent days: “We are in the dial-up days. Architecture hasn’t been built yet to scale-up programmable money.”

In less than two years, the Bitcoin block reward is expected to be halved from 12.5 to 6.25 BTC, which will place a greater emphasis on fees generated by the mining process.

Investors will test the mettle of the network again in Q1 2019, which is when crypto traders like Michael Novogratz of Galaxy Digital predict institutional capital will come off the sidelines.

Meanwhile, as Haun pointed out, like gold, “Bitcoin is a good store of value because it’s easily divisible, doesn’t require a lot of maintenance and [is] hard to counterfeit.” And as it continues to gain scalability, Bitcoin will move closer to Satoshi’s vision of being “a peer-to-peer electronic cash system.”

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Bitcoin Analysis

Bitcoin Price Intraday Analysis: BTC/USD in Pullback Action



bitcoin bear market

The bitcoin-to-dollar exchange rate started losing its grip on the sideways action, slipping almost a percent this Friday.

The pair broke below 6400-fiat, the psychological support level of the previous trend, to establish new intraday lows towards 6356-fiat. The downside action appeared after bulls began to feel weak near the giant descending trendline formation that has capped every upside seen in every quarter of this year. The upside and downside sentiment, however, was in equilibrium as confirmed by majorly accurate Doji formations in the past two days. It seems traders decided to close their long positions on minor losses in fears of an imminent short sentiment.

BTC/USD Technical Analysis

The BTC/USD pair is hinting a major reversal towards the support area lingering near 6000-fiat should the pullback action extends itself. A breakout at this point in time could result in yet another false breakout scenario at most, as can be seen in the previous upside actions. The pair is now testing new medium-term support sentiment near 6320-fiat, its September 20 low, where one could expect upside corrections towards the upper trendline of the giant descending triangle.

As of now, BTC/USD is still well below it’s 100 and 200H simple moving averages while the RSI indicator and the Stochastic oscillator both are hinting a run towards their respective oversold areas. On a daily chart, the bitcoin market is in a near-term bearish bias.

BTC/USD Intraday Analysis

The recent downside action has brought us inside a new trading range, defined by 6353-fiat as our interim support and 6415-fiat as our interim resistance. We are first waiting for BTC/USD to test 6415, and a close above the level will have us open a breakout long position towards 6478-fiat, coinciding with 61.8 percent Fibonacci level of the last swing from 6150-lows and 6680-high.  On this position, we will place a stop loss order just 3-pips below the entry point to minimize our losses should the trend reverse.

A pullback from resistance, meanwhile, will have us open a short position towards 6353-fiat. Similarly, a bounce back from 5353-fiat will have place a long position towards 6353-fiat, which is our intrarange strategy in case the pair is in a mood to consolidate sideways.

A breakdown action below 6353-fiat, however, will have us open a short position towards 6320-fiat, a strong support level from September 25, as our primary downside target. We could see some bullish entries here which would us allow us to open some long positions towards the next possible upside target, 6400-fiat perhaps. Anyway, placing a stop loss just 4-pips below the entry position anytime would protect us from any surprise reversals.

Trade safely!

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Bitcoin Analysis

BTC/USD in Bull Trap, Again



Bitcoin price

The Bitcoin-to-dollar exchange rate consolidated sideways as an extension to its intraday stable action.

The pair seems to have found a decent support above 6400-fiat, but an equally stubborn resistance near 6530-fiat is holding its gains. Currently, BTC/USD is trading at 6439-fiat, down 0.54 percent from the previous day’s close. On the fundamental front, Fidelity, a multinational financial service with a Wall Street status, has revealed its plan to commit its Bitcoin trading plans for hedge funds. The event attests to institutional investors’ growing interest in adding digital currencies to their portfolios. Bulls have already called for $6,000 as a potential bottom.

There is, however, some resistance Bitcoin faces in the name of regulations and economists’ growing negative sentiment against it. A big amount if waiting to enter the crypto market if only the backers think they are protected by regulations. On the other hand, economists’ unresearched comments on the digital currency discourage potential investors from entering the market as a whole.

BTC/USD Technical Analysis – Final Bull Trap?

btcusd_1d_17102018 tradingview.com Coinbase chart

After the Tether confusion, the BTC/USD finally has a reason to look back to its long-term descending triangle formation. The pair is once again testing the upper trendline for a potential breakout or reversal. But a balanced action could have us look at a bull trap formation above the upper trendline, meaning a breakout that would eventually be proven false. The market currently lacks fuel that could allow traders to enter long positions near the bull trap zone.

The bias is also favoring bears for today. BTC/USD is trading below it’s 100 and 200H simple moving averages, and the upside action of both the RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator is slowing down. Maybe, a strong potential reversal should follow suit after validating the upside caps.

BTC/USD Intraday Analysis

btcusd_1h_17102018 tradingview.com Coinbase

On hourly charts, we are looking at a decent support towards the near-term ascending trendline formation. BTC/USD is now trading inside a narrow range defined by 6465-fiat as its interim resistance and 6406-fiat as its interim support. It allows us some room to apply our intrarange strategy in place. That said, a reversal action from the resistance would have us open a short position towards the support, and a close above the support will have put a long position towards the resistance.

A breakout action when the price breaks above resistance will have us treat 6550-fiat as our primary upside target. A break above 6550-fiat should confirm a near-term bullish bias that could allow a decent long position towards 6659-fiat. Then again, we would still be inside a bull trap.

Looking the other way, a breakdown action, such that the BTC/USD breaks below its interim support level will have us put a short entry towards 6346-fiat, our intermediate downside target with a sight towards the near-term ascending trendline.

On all our positions – long or short – we will put a stop loss 3-pips against the direction of price action, which should minimize our losses.

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